russia continues to scale up production of Shahed-type long-range drones while reducing reliance on foreign components.
According to Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, russia plans to produce 79,000 Geran-2 and Garpiya-1 drones in 2025, which are variations of the Iranian Shahed-136, along with Gerbera decoys:
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- Geran-2 - 40,000 units;
- Garpiya-1 - 5,700 units;
- Gerbera and other decoys - about 34,000.
These figures were announced by Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, in the Removska Interview project by Suspilne.
This seems to be the first time that production figures for Garpiya-1 drones at Izhevsk's Kupol plant have been made public. Unlike the Geran-2, manufactured in Alabuga, Tatarstan, these drones have different configurations and assembly methods.
At the same time, the overall plan for 45,700 Shahed-type long-range drones in 2025 envisions a steady increase in production. At the end of 2024, an analysis of Geran-2 drones shot down indicated that the enemy had reached a production rate of 2,000 units per month. At the end of May 2025, according to Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, drone production had reached 2,700 units per month.
If production in russia continues to grow linearly, about 4,000 Geran-2 and Garpiya-1 drones could be produced in September-October, and nearly 5,000 in December. This equates to approximately 130-140 Shahed-type drones per day in autumn and approximately 160-170 in winter.
In other words, there is no scenario in which 1,000 Shahed drones attack Ukraine daily, even accounting for decoys, which may make up around 40%. At the same time, russians could launch the theoretical 1,000 Geran-2 and Garpiya-1 drones more frequently while they accumulate enough units. While a pause of roughly 10 days is currently required for Shahed drone strikes, it may shorten to 6 days during winter.
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