russia continues to intensify its campaign of terror against Ukraine, increasingly relying on mass drone attacks. Earlier this month, the occupiers launched a record-breaking strike – over 800 drones in a single salvo. In just the first ten days of September, Ukraine has already faced three large-scale assaults, each involving more than 500 drones, including long-range strike UAVs like the Shahed/Geran-2.
Against this backdrop, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has published an analysis based on data from Futures Lab and Ukraine's Air Force Command, which sheds light on how russia's combined missile-and-drone tactics have evolved since 2022. The research divides strikes into two categories: routine attacks, near-daily raids with relatively small numbers of missiles and drones, and salvo or massed attacks involving large volumes of aerial weapons.
Read more: russian Drone Routes Toward Warsaw and Lublin: What the Gerber UAVs May Have Reconnoitered in Poland
The findings are striking. In 2022, the average salvo involved just over 100 drones and missiles. By 2025, that number has surged to more than 360 per strike. Not only has the scale increased, but the frequency has also intensified. In 2022, there were 31 massed attacks across the year. By contrast, in just the first eight months of this year, there have already been 33.
This shift means that while massed strikes represented only about 4.5% of all russian aerial attacks in 2022, the figure has now risen to over 13%. Moreover, the interval between such strikes has narrowed dramatically, from more than a month in 2022 to as little as eight days this year. Ukraine is now confronting not only more powerful barrages but also a quicker operational tempo.
CSIS analysts also argue that political factors influence the timing and scale of russia's strikes. They point to the summer of 2025 as an example: in July, russia launched over 6,000 drones against Ukraine, but in August the number dropped below 4,000, with more than a month-long pause between large-scale attacks. This lull coincided with the active phase of international negotiations, including the high-profile Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska.
However, other factors must also be considered. As Defense Express notes, the decline in drone launches cannot be explained by political calculations alone. Ukrainian strikes against production facilities involved in manufacturing the Shahed drones and their components likely contributed to disrupting the tempo of russia's drone campaign.
The data paints a sobering picture: russia's drone war is becoming larger, faster, and more unpredictable. By scaling up both the size and frequency of its barrages, Moscow seeks to overwhelm Ukraine's air defenses, stretch resources thin, and sustain constant pressure on the civilian population. Yet Ukraine's growing ability to target production and logistics shows that these attacks come at a mounting cost to the aggressor.
As Defense Express previously reported, analysis of the wreckage of downed Shahed drones reveals that russia is increasingly introducing new technical solutions into its long-range strike systems. Ukrainian specialists have confirmed that the enemy is now equipping the Geran-2 (Shahed-136) drones with mesh modems and forward-facing cameras on a systematic basis.
Read more: russian Shahed Drones Now Equipped with Mesh Modems and Cameras, Wreckage Analysis Shows
