During russia's attack on Poland on the night of September 10, a total of 19 drones were used, according to Prime Minister Donald Tusk. He reported that the first airspace violation occurred at 23:30, and the last russian drone was recorded at 06:30 local time.
Meanwhile, leading Polish media outlets had earlier reported that 23 russian drones were involved. Only 3–4 were shot down, apparently those that posed a direct threat to specific targets.
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Photos from the crash sites indicate that these were russian Gerber drones — foam-based UAVs mostly employed as decoys, though they can also be fitted with reconnaissance equipment or carry warheads weighing up to 5 kg.
Considering that Polish SIM cards have been detected in russian UAVs since July, it is highly likely that this attack had a reconnaissance purpose. The directions of their flights are therefore particularly noteworthy. To analyze this, one can plot the reported crash sites and known drone routes on a map.
In the map above, the crash sites of Gerbers are marked in red, while the last known drone positions (according to Ukrainian monitoring channels) are shown in black.
These are, of course, fragmentary data that should be treated as grounds for reflection rather than definitive conclusions. Still, it is notable that five drones went down along the Biała Podlaska–Parczew line. This area lies not only near the Belarusian border but also at the junction of three key roads: the E30 highway, and routes 63 and 82.
russian drone groups were also recorded north of Lublin, as well as in the Stalowa Wola region, which is home to well-known defense enterprises. Another group was tracked west of Białystok, while one Gerber was even found near Łódź.
Moreover, Poland's Ministry of Internal Affairs reported the discovery of drone debris near the village of Olesno (Gronowo Elbląskie municipality), in the north of the country, just 10 km from the 22nd Air Base near Malbork.
Also, the picture is incomplete without adding another layer of analysis — namely, Poland’s key air defense assets. These include long-range radar detection posts at Roskosz (144th post with NUR-12M radar) and Łabunie (110th post with RAT-31DL radar), along with several Polish Air Force bases.
These two posts are among three located along Poland's eastern frontier, the third being at Szypliszki in the Suwałki Gap.
Thus, the question arises: was this an attempt to probe Poland's air defense system along the main axes of a hypothetical routes toward Warsaw and Lublin? While the notion remains highly debatable, it cannot be dismissed outright. Warsaw officials, however, currently describe the incident merely as a "provocation."
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