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​russia Steps Up Offensives and Shelling Amid US Military Aid Suspension – ISW

The Oniks anti-ship missile launch / Open source illustrative photo
The Oniks anti-ship missile launch / Open source illustrative photo

Recently, russians have been stepping up their offensives on the battlefield and increasing their combined drone and missile strikes. In this way, they are trying to deplete Ukraine's air defense. This is happening in the absence of US assistance to Ukraine

This conclusion was made by analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They stated that on the night of March 6-7, russian troops carried out one of the largest missile and drone strikes against Ukraine.

Experts suggest that russians increased the use of attack and decoy drones during the attacks in the fall of 2024, likely adapting to successful Ukrainian innovations in electronic warfare.

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"russian forces launched an average 83.4 drones per strike package in January 2025, an average of 139.3 drones per strike package in February 2024, and an average of 128.8 drones per strike package from March 1 through 7," the statement reads.

russia Steps Up Offensives and Shelling Amid US Military Aid Suspension – ISW, Defense Express

russian troops are known to have only sporadically included missiles in strikes in January, February, and March 2025, and the 67 missiles launched in a series of strikes on March 6-7 represent a higher number than in previous missile strikes this year.

Experts noted that russian forces likely increased the total number of Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles during the March 6-7 strikes to maximize damage to selected targets in Ukraine, while using large numbers of Shahed drones, decoy drones, and Kalibr cruise missiles to detect and suppress Ukrainian air defense assets and mobile fire groups.

"russia will likely take advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine to intensify its long-range strike campaign and deplete Ukrainian air defense missiles," experts explained.

Ukrainian forces will likely have to be more selective in intercepting strikes as their stock of interceptors decreases with no resupply on the horizon, and successful russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities will likely have lasting effects on Ukraine's ability to generate power for defense and civilian use.

Analysts also emphasized that russian troops continue to intensify offensive operations in certain areas of the frontline to take advantage of both the immediate and long-term consequences of the termination of US assistance to Ukraine on the battlefield.

Earlier Defense Express reported that the Ukrainian Navy had struck two russian air defense systems with Naval drones deep behind enemy lines.

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