Out of 15 missiles taken down by Ukraine's air defense overnight May 1, there was at least one Kh-101 painted in non-standard red color, sources told Defense Express. The remnants of this cruise missile are now being studied by Ukrainian specialists but can already draw some conclusions from what we have at hand.
First things first, russians usually don't paint the fuselage of their mass-produced missiles, they also with test or experimental prototypes, and Kh-101 is no special in that regard. consequently, it would be logical to assume russia used one of the missiles from an "experimental" batch during the shelling on the night of May 1, 2023.
Read more: Ukraine Survives Another russia’s Missile Attack at Night Over Monday, Air Defense Downs 15 Out of 18 Enemy Missiles
A closer look at the serial number applied on the fragment of the downed missile indicates that this Kh-101 was made in the fourth quarter of 2021, and it was the 19th number in batch No. 6. That leads to an assumption that this particular missile wasn't "experimental" as it was produced over 1.5 years ago.
But here's the thing to rewind. In 2021, the russian defense industry started making so-called "kits for production" of an enhanced version of the Kh-101, it received a development name Izdeliye 504AP (Product 540) and features the Otblesk-U guidance system, similar to the Western TERCOM and DSMAC, and the SP-504 electronic warfare system. More details.
Apparently, Ukrainian air defense shot one of the first prototypes of this upgraded missile made back in 2021.
In 2021–2022, russians only produced 111 modified Kh-101 in the Product 540AP version, which is only about a third of the totality of Kh-101 missiles russia had if we combine 144 available as of February 2022 plus another 120 produced during the war in Ukraine, according to the data of March 2023.
An analyst earlier stated russians started using the modified Kh-101 in November 2022, the first visually confirmed case was recorded only in January 2023. Either way, the russian forces had enough time and opportunities to spend the entire serial stock of missiles of this type. In which case the assumption is that the russians reversed their usual logic and spent the newer missiles first, then began to open up older storages. The older missiles also may prove more reliable and time-tested in terms of avionics.
That said, the downed red prototype will help Ukrainian specialists to assess the evolution (or degradation) of the guidance systems and batteries depending on the date of production.
The results of the research, in turn, will help to build better algorithms for air defense systems and impose more effective sanctions against the russian federation to cut off the supply of crucial electronics.
Read more: Since November 2022, the Russians Wanted to Defeat Ukrainian Air Defense with Izdelye 504AP Missiles But Failed
