According to the report on the ISW website, "russian forces continue to make slow, steady advances in the Pokrovsk direction (west of Avdiivka), largely enabled by Ukrainian manpower shortages and the terrain in the area immediately northwest of Avdiivka."
At the same time, analysts suggest that the russian advance is likely to slow down in the future.
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"russia's current rate of tactical advance towards Pokrovsk will likely not continue indefinitely, as russian forces are nearing a line of larger and more urbanized areas. Present russian efforts in the Pokrovsk direction focus on achieving a tactical breakthrough near Zhelanne and Novohrodivka. The next defensible line between the current russian positions and Pokrovsk is located between the towns of Selydove, Novohrodivka, and Hrodivka. Many of the current russian tactical advances are concentrated specifically on the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka sector, which is about five kilometers west of their positions in the Vesele area," the researchers report.
ISW also references military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, who cautioned that russian troops are nearing an operationally significant breakthrough in the Pokrovsk sector by the end of August.
The ISW attributes the inability to deter the russian advance to the fact that Ukrainian units are inadequately staffed and equipped.
For example, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted that some Ukrainian brigades are unable to rotate because the replacement units are not yet fully staffed or equipped. This creates vulnerabilities that russian troops can exploit for their offensive.
Kostiantyn Mashovets observed that Ukrainian defenders in the Pokrovsk direction are hampered by inferior equipment and defensive resources, making them currently unable to slow the russian advance.
Delays in the provision of Western and especially US military assistance have contributed to delays in equipping newly-raised Ukrainian units and re-equipping those that have been fighting.
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