Recently, Iranian MP Mohsen Zangeneh announced on IRIB state television that Iran had successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missil (ICBM).
A few days before this broadcast, a trail typical of a ballistic missile launch was spotted in the sky over Iran, likely belonging to the ICBM reportedly being tested.
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In photos and videos circulating online, several "spots" can be seen appearing behind the missile, following its long engine trail. It seems that these "spots" were left by the missile's engine, which probably operated in pulses. The reason for the engine operating in this mode so early in the flight remains unclear.
The published images show no sign of the engine trail expanding in the upper layers of the atmosphere. The effect may be obscured by strong lighting, making it hard to detect. Most likely, the missile did not reach space or the upper atmosphere, raising many questions.
This class of missiles needs to reach such an altitude. The missile's behavior can generally be explained by the fact that it was only a test, and its target was relatively close. However, this seems unlikely, as it would still have needed to reach a significant altitude before impact.
It is also possible that the published footage depicted a test of a different missile. There remains a chance that the missile was indeed an ICBM, but it experienced a malfunction. Its unusual behavior casts doubt on the success of the test, despite official statements.
It is worth noting that in August, local Iranian media reported the creation of an ICBM named Khorramshahr-5. Therefore, it is quite likely that it was tested, as there is no information about the existence of other ICBMs in Iran.
Its declared characteristics include a range of up to 12,000 kilometers, which is sufficient to strike any point in the United States from Iranian territory. The missile, which accelerates to 16 Mach (5.4 km/s), is armed with a two-ton warhead. Although the warhead is currently non-nuclear, Iran is known to be actively developing nuclear weapons, and this ICBM could potentially serve as a delivery system.
Another example of the same launch of a intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Israel earlier this year.
It does not make much sense to strike the U.S. with a non-nuclear ICBM with a two-ton warhead, because such missiles are quite expensive and difficult to manufacture in large quantities. Therefore, the Khorramshahr-5 should rather be considered as a nuclear weapon delivery system.
In 2015, Iranian officials stated that a 2,000 km range would be sufficient to strike Israel and American bases in the region. After the 12-day June war, during which U.S. B-2 bombers struck Iran, the country appears to have shifted its strategy and now seeks the capability to strike the United States directly.
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