It has been 9 days since the last massive missile attack on Ukraine and, judging by the activity of the russian fleet in the Black Sea, as well as russian MiG-31K and the AWACS aircraft in Belarus, it can be assumed that russia is preparing for another terrorist missile attack.
In this case, what approximate salvo of missiles can russians fire this time? Let's recall the amount of missiles the occupiers launched during their two large-scale rocket attacks in December.
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Thus, during the terrorist missile attack on December 5, the occupiers launched about 70 missiles: 38 Kh-101/Kh-555 units from eight Tu-95MS strategic bombers, 22 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, three Kh-22 from Tu-22M3 bombers, as well as six Kh-59 and one Kh-31P with Su-35S. Out of 70 missiles, Ukraine’s air-defense shot down more than 60 russia’s cruise missiles.
At the same time, during the last missile attack on December 16, the occupiers fired primarily Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles from their Tu-95MS, as well as Kalibr missiles from Admiral Makarov frigate (a total of 8 missiles can be fired) and Kh-59 guided air missiles and the Kh-31P, probably from the Su-35 (a total of four missiles were fired). Several Kh-22 cruise missiles were also fired from the Tu-22M3’s.
As we can see, most of the missiles were fired from the Tu-95MS: about 62 units from the entire salvo of 76 missiles (of them 60 units were shot down).
Also, based on these two strikes, we can see that the occupiers still try to accumulate more and more missiles with each strike, taking into account the fact that our anti-aircraft defense shoots down up to 80%, or even more, of the occupiers' missiles.
Thus, analyzing information from previous strikes, it is possible to roughly calculate how many rockets the occupiers might prepare for their next strike.
Starting with the Kalibr missiles. Yesterday, December 24, it was reported that as of evening, the occupiers had a potential volley of 24 missiles in the Black Sea: two underwater and two surface carriers of these missiles. And it is quite possible to assume that in the event of another missile attack, all 24 missiles will be fired in the direction of Ukraine.
Next, counting the so-called "collective brine": apparently, the occupiers will continue to involve a certain number of Kh-59 and Kh-31P missiles, as well as Kh-22, in their attacks. The total volley of these missiles can be up to 10 units, if the data of previous missile strikes are taken into account.
We should not rule out the possibility of using the Kinzhal missiles, which russians can launch from their MiG-31K located in Belarus. Judging by the activity of the A-50 AWACS aircraft and the carriers of the hypersonic missiles recently, the russians might involve them in the next missile attack. However, given the small number of the Kinzhal missiles that russia has in its assets, we can talk about 1-2 missiles that the occupiers will try to launch at the most valuable targets.
After all, there are Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles left, which usually make up the majority of russia’s missile salvo. And the next missile strike should not really be an exception.
Currently, russia keeps about 20 Tu-95MS and 6 Tu-160 strategic bombers at Engels Airfield. At the same time, according to OSINT sources, since December 17, about 45 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles have been delivered to the airfield, and the intensity of delivery of these missiles is decreasing every day.
So it can be carefully assumed that this time russian will collect at least 50 units of the cruise missiles for launches from strategic bombers, and then the total volley may be approximately 80 missiles. At the same time, if we take into account that more than 60 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles were launched during the last missile attack, russian can increase their salvo to 90, 100 or more units precisely by increasing the number of missiles fired from their Tu- 95MS strategic bombers.
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