Of course, the German Ministry of Defense closely follows and monitors russia’s military plans and believes that the Kremlin is preparing a new large-scale offensive. The content of the corresponding analytical report became known to the German publication Neue Zürcher Zeitung. According to the report, a new large-scale offensive may occur in April and may develop according to two options.
The first scenario envisages a sharp escalation on the border with Belarus, but without the participation of the russian or Belarusian army from its territory. This will be a public, as believable as possible demonstration of the intention to attack from the north.
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Berlin does not expect a real use of the armed forces of Belarus against Ukraine. But it is the threat that will make it necessary for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to strengthen the border. This will lead to the withdrawal of part of the forces from the eastern direction, which the russian federation will use to attack in Donbas.
The second scenario concerns the situation when the attack is carried out simultaneously from the northern and eastern directions. In this situation, the Belarusian troops will be ordered to attack Kyiv, and russians will attack in all other directions. The key task for the russian army according to this plan is to cut the logistical connection with Poland with a blow from the north, as well as advance in the south with the aim of reaching Transnistria.
But such a large-scale task requires general mobilization from Moscow, which is "a rather unlikely scenario due to internal political reasons."
Defense Express notes that the first scenario with a demonstration of the threat is indeed considered the most realistic. The fact is that the probability of a new attack from Belarus will never be zero until Ukraine wins. The threat can increase or decrease, but it still remains possible. But the incitement of the "threat of an attack from Belarus" has been followed for a considerable time by means of information leaks, saying that "an attack will occur tomorrow or the day after tomorrow."
Such a situation already forces the Armed Forces of Ukraine to keep forces to cover the border. But the problem is that any demonstration of intentions, even if it was planned exclusively as a demonstration, can turn into actual combat.
Regarding the second scenario, it actually copies russia’s plan, which they tried to implement at the beginning of the invasion, but with a wider involvement of the northern direction and a strike along the border with Poland. In Berlin, it is rejected with the logical argument that the Kremlin does not have the necessary forces for this.
However, the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain believes that the reserves of artillery ammunition in russia are no longer enough to carry out any large-scale offensive operation.
But Defense Express states that for both of these assessments, a military rather than a political approach, which is currently dominant in Moscow, can be used. Similar assessments regarding russia’s forces, which are necessary for a full-scale invasion, have already become a "trap" on February 24.
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