India is approaching signing an agreement to purchase at least 114 more French Dassault Rafale fighters. The future deal supposedly includes exceptional localization volumes of 80% of the order.
Perhaps such a figure is exaggeration and wishful thinking from Indian media, particularly IDN. But currently even they claim negotiations are still ongoing, with the contract possibly signed during upcoming French President Emmanuel Macron's visit.
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The agreement's core remains deploying local aircraft production. Actually, this process partially already began thanks to a signed agreement between TATA and Dassault on fuselage localization. Corresponding factory construction is already underway, set to begin deliveries in 2028.
Engine production deployment is also expected unsurprising given cooperation with Safran. A local repair, maintenance, and modernization center will also be created. Overall, localization volume could reach up to 60% of all aircraft systems.
Defense Express notes quite high values are being cited, but all this remains various speculation and opinions. Nobody names exact figures yet, and we most likely won't learn them until the final contract is signed.
Overall, a certain localization percentage can be calculated differently such as only by components or based on man-hours spent. So it's worth looking at what exactly will be produced at local facilities. The 80% aircraft figure probably refers specifically to fuselages, but this is only an assumption for now.
However, one cannot dismiss that France agrees to quite serious transfer of fighter production capabilities. Quite likely this was the main condition for obtaining the deal, considering current "Made in India" policy, which russian aviation industry also wants to pass into.
Are the French creating new competition for themselves while trying to sell fighters? Quite possibly, but this is a question for the future. Currently, the Rafale order portfolio needs filling to further scale up its production.
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