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Ukrainian Intel Reveals russian Monthly Missile Production Plans: Six Times More Iskanders and Other Details

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Kalibr cruise missile launch / Open source photo
Kalibr cruise missile launch / Open source photo

russian defense industry steadily increases its missile production capacity, as much as we can judge based on the latest statistics obtained and disclosed by Ukrainian intelligence

Earlier today we discussed that russia managed to pile up long-range missiles before an anticipated repeat of last year's shelling campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, with massive blackouts and heat supply disruption in autumn and winter as a result of a continuous barrage of standoff weapons.

There are almost 600 missiles (excl. Kh-32) of range 500+ km ready to be used, and russians are planning to produce 118 more this August, Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Deputy Chief, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi said in an interview to RBC-Ukraine.

Read more: ​rUssia Now Has Fewer X-101/X-555 and X-55 Missiles Than Early This Year, but Statistics for Other Missiles Are Worse
Iskander-K cruise missile loaded onto launcher during a military drill
Iskander-K cruise missile loaded onto launcher during a military drill / Open source photo

Missile manufacture in August is expected to reach the following numbers:

  • ~40 Kh-101 cruise missiles;
  • 30 "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles;
  • 20 Kalibr cruise missiles;
  • 12 "Iskander-K" cruise missiles;
  • 10 Kh-32 missiles (modernized Kh-22);
  • 6 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles.

At the same time, we can analyze how the rates of production changed since the last time this kind of information was revealed. In May this year, Skibitskyi noted that russians were making:

  • 35 Kh-101 missiles;
  • 25 Kalibr missiles;
  • 5 Iskander-M missiles; and
  • 2 Kinzhal missiles,

– without mentioning the respective figures for Iskander-K and Kh-32.

Tu-22M3 with Kh-32 missiles
Tu-22M3 with Kh-32 missiles / Open source photo

Once again, the August estimates are just how many weapons the russians are planning to produce, so the factual output can differ. The official from Ukraine's Defense Intelligence stressed that in reality, the works may fall behind schedule significantly.

However, if they manage to fulfill this plan, we see a twofold picture: Kalibr production has decreased by five units since then but on the other hand, Kh-101 has gone up five units a month.

The real problem is how quickly Iskander-M making rates are growing. Six times the monthly capacity, compared to May 2023.

Iskander-M ballistic missiles
Iskander-M ballistic missiles / Source: Vitaly V. Kuzmin, Wikimedia Commons

As for Kh-32, there is no reliable data on how many of them were already made. The only detail known in that regard is that russians have around 150 lower-class Kh-22 missiles as source material for the modernized version.

In the Kinzhal department, the production rates of six missiles per month remained the same since June, but we should remember that at the beginning of 2023, they had been able to make only two missiles a month.

Read more: There Will be More Neptun Missiles, 155mm Artillery Produced, and a Hidden CV90 Factory in Ukraine – President Zelenskyi