russia is increasing its presence in the Arctic region, using scientific activity as a cover for military and strategic infrastructure development. The shift comes amid global warming, which is opening new opportunities for resource extraction and navigation along the Northern Sea Route, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine reports.
A central actor in this strategy is the state-owned Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI). While formally responsible for scientific expeditions, the institute plays a direct role in gathering operational data relevant to both economic and military objectives. This includes geological surveys for oil and gas deposits, as well as detailed assessments of ice conditions to support year-round navigation.
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The AARI's activities provide the russian military with valuable environmental intelligence. Expeditions collect data on water temperature, ocean currents, wind patterns, and ice movement. These parameters are critical for planning the operations of the russian Northern Fleet and for determining the feasibility of sustained maritime movement in Arctic waters.
Russia is also investing in Arctic infrastructure with dual-use potential. New satellite communication systems are being deployed, supporting both civilian research missions and military coordination. These systems could be used to control unmanned platforms and enable command-and-control functions in remote areas.
Russia's actions align with long-term strategic planning. The Kremlin is developing models to project climate and oceanographic changes through 2035, which would allow the russian military to anticipate environmental conditions and plan deployments accordingly.
In parallel, Moscow is building or upgrading airfields, ports, and radar installations across its Arctic coastline. These assets can support logistical operations, early warning capabilities, and potential force projection into the Arctic and surrounding regions.
According to the Defense Intelligence, russia's use of civilian agencies for strategic purposes creates a challenge for international monitoring and response. The integration of military planning with environmental and economic activity makes it more difficult to distinguish legitimate research from preparations for future military operations.
While russia does not currently face Arctic-based security threats, its continued military build-up in the region indicates an effort to establish strategic advantage and secure long-term access to critical routes and resources. The militarization of the Arctic, although gradual, is progressing under the radar of conventional threat assessment frameworks.
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