Romania revealed that from received €16.68 billion defense credits under EU SAFE program, it will direct €2.984 billion toward 198 new tracked IFVs. This almost certainly means South Korean AS21 Redback is effectively thrown out of the tender.
Thus the most likely candidate emerges as German Rheinmetall's KF41 Lynx, which will soon be supplied to Ukraine. Actually, rumors already circulated that it was chosen, but then official Romanian representatives denied this fact.
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As a reminder, SAFE stipulates purchasing weapons and military equipment manufactured by EU countries plus partners like Norway, Canada, and Ukraine. To be precise, 65% of total component value of the product.
Here someone might remind that Romania wants not just to purchase tracked IFVs but also localize them. This concerns mastering production of hull, turret with armament, armor, mine protection, fire control system, communications means, observation and detection systems.
So if sufficient percentage of South Korean AS21 can be localized which its developers are ready for theoretically this could fall under SAFE conditions. As an example, we can cite Polish Krab SPHs, developed and manufactured on localized chassis from South Korean K9.
However, mastering production requires time, and large portion of project cost will initially go to South Korea. So it's very unlikely EU would agree to give Romania funds for such procurement from outside Europe.
Considering regional limitation, it may seem KF41 Lynx has victory in pocket, especially against backdrop of successes with Italy and even Ukraine. Rheinmetall is equally ready for localization and is already organizing it for Hungarians and Italians.
Meanwhile, worth looking at other regional options like ASCOD, distinguished by lowest price among Western IFVs, and from the same manufacturer Romania already produces Piranha V, purchased precisely through SAFE. Also worth remembering Swedish CV90s, currently being localized by Czech Republic and Slovakia, offering potential regional interaction, but orders are already scheduled years ahead.
Finally, look at Polish Borsuk, whose serial delivery only recently began, with production volumes remaining limited for long time. Well, and unknown how willing Poland will be to transfer production technologies to Romanians.
So it turns out that despite denials, many believe Romania will choose KF41 Lynx. However, it's not over yet, so until final contract announcement this remains an assumption, and decision may change for political or economic reasons toward those same ASCOD or CV90.
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