Following Operation Sindoor and the spring 2025 clash with Pakistan, the Indian Air Force faces the need to replenish and expand its stockpile of SCALP cruise missiles. As a result, New Delhi plans to place a corresponding order with France.
According to Opex360, citing Indian media reports, India intends to allocate around EUR 300 million for the procurement of these MBDA-produced cruise missiles. The signing of the agreement is expected to take place on February 20 during French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to India.
Read more: France Trials Rafale Combat Performance with SCALP Missiles Amid russian Threats
From the Defense Express perspective, such an order from India appears logical and predictable. However, it is unlikely to be positive news for Ukraine, as this potential Indian contract could significantly load French SCALP production capacities. In that case, the supply of additional missiles to Ukraine as military aid could easily become a secondary priority.
At present, the exact number of missiles India may order for its Rafale fighters remains unknown. There is no up-to-date pricing, while estimates of around USD 1 million per missile date back to the 2000s. Moreover, production of these missiles in France was only resumed in 2025, making current output rates difficult to assess.
Even in more favorable times, the delivery of a batch of approximately 500 SCALP missiles for the French Air and Space Force took place between 2003 and 2008. In other words, even fully operational production lines required five years to fulfill that order, at an average rate of around 100 missiles per year. Therefore, a potential Indian order should be expected to take a considerable amount of time to complete.
This order would be fulfilled specifically at French production facilities, despite the missile itself being manufactured by the pan-European MBDA consortium as the French SCALP and the British Storm Shadow. These variants differ mainly in software. This distinction is important, as France has opposed EU plans to procure British Storm Shadow cruise missiles for Ukraine, insisting instead on orders limited to SCALP.
At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that India may agree to deferred deliveries, with execution starting at a later date, potentially in exchange for a newer version of the missile. In 2026, the program to develop the next-generation SCALP Mk2 is expected to begin. It should also be expected that New Delhi will push for partial localization of production in India as part of its national strategic industrial programs.
It is also worth noting that this potential acquisition in the long-range air-launched weapons segment is far from India's only major plan. In particular, reports indicate that India intends to order the Israeli Air LORA aeroballistic missile, along with other weapons, under a broader contract valued at USD 8.7 billion.
Read more: Pakistan Conducts First Test of Its Taimoor Cruise Missile With 600 km Range, Positioned as Counter to India's Storm Shadow / SCALP
