Modern air defense systems like Patriot and SAMP-T are built for specific roles, but intercepting medium-range ballistic missiles equipped with multiple warheads requires a completely different set of technologies.
Ukraine currently lacks the necessary systems to defend against such threats, including missiles like Oreshnik, as noted by Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi.
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Although Patriot PAC-3 and SAMP-T are highly capable, they were designed to intercept short-range ballistic missiles with flight ranges of up to 1,000 km, not medium- or long-range missiles. Their main limitation is their inability to effectively engage targets moving at extreme speeds and altitudes, particularly during the mid-course phase of flight, which takes place above 100 km in space. Medium-range ballistic missiles can reenter the atmosphere at speeds of 3–4 km/s, while intercontinental types can reach up to 7 km/s.

Though Patriot and SAMP-T can, in theory, engage missile warheads during atmospheric reentry, their effectiveness is constrained, particularly against systems like Oreshnik, which deploy multiple independent warheads along with decoys. Some attacks involve dozens of targets, including fake warheads, making it difficult for air defense systems to intercept them all at once.
The concept of multiple warheads was first introduced with the U.S. Minuteman III in the 1970s and later adopted by the Soviet Union. Despite being an older technology, it remains highly effective by dramatically increasing the number of objects that must be intercepted.
Even advanced systems like THAAD, designed to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles in the upper atmosphere or near-space, face limitations in engaging multiple targets simultaneously, though details about its exact capabilities remain classified.
The most reliable way to counter such missiles is to destroy them before their warheads separate, targeting a single object rather than several. Currently, only the SM-3 system, deployed on Aegis-equipped ships or land-based Aegis Ashore systems, offers such capabilities. However, its production and deployment are limited.
This reality highlights NATO’s recognition that building a comprehensive missile defense system in Europe is unrealistic. Instead, the focus must shift to developing long-range offensive missiles as a deterrent.
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