Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Centre, stated this, ERR reports.
"In the russian Federation's full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, russia's Armed Forces are still maintaining the initiative across the entire front line. The intensity of fighting remains particularly high in the Donetsk region, where russia has also seen some tactical success. It is a similar case in the Luhansk region," he said.
Read more: Ukraine's General Staff Confirms Strike on russian Arsenal Storing North Korean Shells
"Approximately 50% of all hostilities are occurring in Donetsk," Kiviselg noted, highlighting the heavy fighting south of Pokrovsk, near Selydove and Kurakhove. He also pointed out that russia is concentrating significant force in the Kupyansk and Lyman areas, deploying battalion-sized mechanized assault groups. Their likely objective is to secure key tactical positions along the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers.
He further noted that russian units may have been instructed to intensify fighting in an effort to secure tactical objectives before the rainy season begins. The colonel suggested that russia might be setting the stage to merge the South Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts, although it's unlikely they have the resources to achieve this quickly.
Kiviselg also highlighted that the experience of 2023 shows the rainy season is not always a significant obstacle to russian offensive operations, meaning such actions could persist even after colder weather sets in.
At the same time, russia is becoming increasingly dependent on North Korean support to sustain its war efforts.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to strike russian territory, targeting ammunition depots with drone attacks.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces targeted the central missile and artillery depot in Karachev, Bryansk region, which was reportedly storing ammunition from North Korea. This marks the fourth depot destroyed in recent drone attacks, as noted by the colonel.
Kiviselg indicated that strikes on russian military depots are expected to persist, exacerbating the ongoing ammunition shortage.
Read more: russian GRAU Arsenal Spanning 3.5 Square km, 114 km from Ukraine, Hit by Drones Attack
