Belarus is actively fighting for a place on the bench in the Hague. On December 3, due to "discussion of military and military-technical cooperation", russia’s Minister of Defense arrived in the Republic of Belarus. As a result of the visit, additional amendments to the agreement on joint provision of regional security in the military sphere were signed.
The joint group is built around the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army of the Western Military District of russia’s Armed Forces and should reach the number of 20,000 people (a division deployed to its full strength is about 12,000, it should be assumed that the remaining 8,000 are Belarusian military personnel).
Read more: Russians Patrol the Crimean Sky With the Su-27SM Fighters
The 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division was withdrawn from Balakliia and in the midst of the fighting on the Kreminna-Svatov border, it is not an extra combat unit at all, but it observes the battles from the distance.
Meanwhile, "partially mobilized" are arriving at the "Obuz-Lesnovsky", "Lepelsky", "Losvydo", and "Osypovichsky" training grounds. 4,830 people. This fact itself suggests that russian facilities of the training and material base are not capable of digesting 300,000 "partisans" called up from the reserve, which is why Belarus is involved, which allows to at least somehow prepare this contingent. Combat reconciliation was supposed to be completed by November 30, but there was no information that it actually happened.
And here take a close look at what is happening along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border from above.
From Ukraine’s side, a system of defensive lines and positions is being created, minefields and other engineering barriers are being set up. These measures are under constant control of the authorities. In November, for example, the head of the Kyiv Regional Military Administration, Oleksiy Kuleba, together with the commander of the Kyiv Defense Group, General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, checked the readiness of the defense system around the Ukrainian capital in case of a repeated attack by russian invaders.
The Commander of the Joint Forces Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Serhii Nayev, checked the readiness of the anti-sabotage forces, which should leave no chance to saboteurs and scouts from across the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, in mid-November, he conducted training to repel the enemy's invasion of Ukraine. That is, we can see that systematic measures are being taken to increase defense capabilities in the northern direction. In other words, this time the aggressor will be met by minefields, fortifications stuffed with fire weapons, a dense air defense system, artillery that has already fired at everything and everything, and soldiers of the Defense Forces.
The general geopolitical background of today's events is russia’s attempts to start bargaining for a draw, but it is already clear in the West and in the East that russian conditions are of no interest to anyone in the world, so bargaining should begin for the price of defeat. The stage of acceptance of this fact has started in the russian federation.
Let's focus on three internal russian conflicts:
Conflict 1:
The commander of the 1st Tank Army, Lieutenant General Sergei Kisel, the commander of the 6th Combined Arms Army, Lieutenant General Vladislav Yershov, were removed from their posts (under investigation, under house arrest, 1/8 of russian losses as of April, namely the 6th Army), commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, Lieutenant General Mikhail Zusko (information about the arrest has not been confirmed, but an interview with law enforcement agencies took place), commander of the Black Sea Fleet of the russian Armed Forces, Admiral Igor Osipov (the situation is approximately the same as with Zusko).
We see that law enforcement agencies are confidently placing the responsibility for the failures of the military campaign against Ukraine precisely on high-ranking military personnel. Corporate solidarity must work here and the military clan must begin to defend themselves, the distrust of the russian military in the russian special services will increase, real plans will be carefully hidden from "outsiders" of the special services (retreat from Kherson, withdrawal of russian troops deep into the territory from the eastern bank of the Dnipro, preparatory measures for withdrawal troops from Melitopol are the sole decisions of the General Sergei Surovikin).
The former co-owner of Yukos, Leonid Nevzlin, made public the information about the embezzlement of 10 billion dollars allocated for the preparation of the blitzkrieg against Ukraine, where the leaders of the special services played the main role, which can also become a trump card in the hands of the military in the fight against its opponents.
Conflict 2:
Kadyrov's and Prigozhin's "attack" on General Oleksandr Lapin, the commander of the "Center" group in Ukraine, who was ultimately removed from his post for the defeat in Kharkiv oblast. The military hierarchy will not allow "outsiders" an informational attack on its own, therefore the disposal of Kadyrov's fighters and mercenaries from the Wagner Group becomes a very important task of the russian military command both in Ukraine and, possibly, in Belarus.
Here, among other things, the interests of the russian military and russian law enforcement officers coincide: the physical liquidation of the Wagner Group outside the russian federation by Ukrainian hands is the optimal option for russian security forces.
Conflict 3:
The military leadership of the strategic level, the generals and officers of the russian General Staff, admitted to the Special Military Operation plan, realize that the war in Ukraine is lost, but the political leadership does not hear them and will make them guilty at the first opportunity. And when the first question "Who is to blame?" the answer is ready, then the second question arises: "What to do?".
If the russian military wants to leave the Special Military Operation without going to prisons then they must create conditions for the overthrow of the Putin regime. And it can be done quite simply: by physically disposing of a huge number of mobilized people motivated by "duty to the Motherland", especially since rrussia’s Armed Forces are unable (unwilling and not going to?) to train and provide for such a large number of mobilized people.
Their immediate disposal does not seem impossible, considering that for three months russian society has been accustomed to high losses among the mobilized, who are thrown into the furnace of war in groups of different numbers without much moral hesitation.
But it is necessary to send several hundreds of thousands of people somewhere. Bakhmut, Avdiyvka, Vugledar and Svatov are clearly not enough. A large-scale offensive is needed, for example, from Belarus: all the interests of all russian elites coincide: "take Kyiv in three days", "get rid of hundreds of thousands of unnecessary military mobilized", "dispose of Wagner and Kadyrov Groups", for example. Therefore, the offensive from Belarus may be quite likely the last "mongoose throw".
The consequence of this offensive should be the senseless death of several tens of thousands of mobilized people in a short period of time, which, in turn, becomes a catalyst for the protest movement in russia.
What should Ukraine do?
- Wait for the offensive from RB
- Meet biomass on pre-prepared minefields
- From pre-prepared positions with the complete dominance of Ukrainian artillery and anti-aircraft defense, inflict significant losses on the enemy
- Remotely break russian society
- Have dinner, drink coffee
- Clean the machine guns and equip fresh tapes so that it is ready in the morning just in case.
Ukraine will win.
Viktor KEVLYUK, Center for Defense Strategies
Read more: 289 Days of russia-Ukraine War – russian Casualties In Ukraine
