In late March, reports emerged suggesting that russia was asserting claims over Svalbard — a move that could escalate tensions. Earlier, we already took a closer look at Norway's military capabilities. Now, the same question has been raised in a more detailed way by naval analyst Frederik Van Lokeren, in a publication by Naval News. It describes that the currently demilitarized Svalbard could become a zone of potential conflict between NATO forces and the russian armed forces.
In this context, the question arises as to whether the russian Northern Fleet — with its five landing ships and the 200th and 61st Marine Brigades — would be sufficient to carry out a successful landing on Svalbard, given the losses russia has suffered in the war against Ukraine.
Read more: russian Shahed Drones Are Now Carrying Banned Chemical Agents to Target Ukrainian Forces
It would make little sense for Norway to undermine Svalbard’s demilitarized status at this point, despite the evident threat posed by russia. Official Oslo believes that as long as the country remains under U.S. protection, it is not at risk.
On the other hand, russia demonstrates aggressive behavior in the area. It is not only about the accusations from the Kremlin leadership that NATO is allegedly violating the demilitarized status of Svalbard, but also about the constant visits by emissaries from russia to the region for propaganda.
It is also worth noting that the russian Northern Fleet is conducting exercises against NATO, assuming that the demilitarized status of Svalbard will remain intact, thus avoiding the need for the russian Navy to stretch its forces.
Against this backdrop, Frederik Van Lokeren suggests that the most appropriate course of action for Norway would be to deploy combat and patrol aircraft to Svalbard, given that the russian Northern Fleet's air defense capabilities are traditionally weak.
Still, there is a risk that russia could interpret any efforts to organize the defense of Svalbard as a provocation or use them as a pretext for a military operation in the region, including a potential landing.
But the question arises whether the russian Northern Fleet currently possesses sufficient forces for such a campaign, and whether the five landing ships and two marine brigades it currently has will be enough for such an operation.
Earlier Defense Express reported that the war in Ukraine had derailed russia's plans to modernize its naval fleet.
Read more: russians Imagined a RZ-500 Drone to Cover Up the Friendly Helicopter Downing by Own Forces in Naro-Fominsk
