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russia Calls Out Norway For "Militarizing Svalbard," Setting the Stage For War — How Strong is NATO's Northern Flank?

Leopard 2A4 tanks of the Norwegian Army / Photo credit: Forsvaret
Leopard 2A4 tanks of the Norwegian Army / Photo credit: Forsvaret
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Contrary to expectations, russia's first target in NATO might be not even the Baltic region but the North, so let's take a brief look at its defense capacity

Officials in Moscow, in various forms, have recently made claims that Norway allegedly militarizes Spitsbergen, an island of the Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic Ocean. This, the russians argue, violates the Svalbard Treaty, signed in 1920 to ensure the island is not used for military purposes.

The Kremlin's interest in Svalbard can be explained by the pursuit of strengthening its positions in the Arctic and is part of a larger geopolitical bargain with the United States, as Jamestown Foundation expert Paul Goble writes in his article for the Eurasia Daily Monitor publication. This disposition means that russia may in due time launch an armed aggression against NATO, starting not even in the Baltic region, but in Northern Europe.

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Norwegian CV90s / Defense Express / russia Calls Out Norway For Militarizing Svalbard, Setting the Stage For War — How Strong is NATO's Northern Flank?
Norwegian CV90s / Photo credit: Forsvaret

The russian claims against Norway find evidence of "provocations" and Svalbard Treaty breach in such activities on the archipelago as modernizations of airfield and berthing infrastructure on Jan Mayen island, carried out by the Norwegian military. The statement comes from President Putin's aide Nikolai Patrushev who, however, omits to mention Jan Mayen does not fall under the regulations of the said treaty; moreover, there are only about a dozen Norwegian soldiers on the island, it can hardly be even called a "military presence."

Nonetheless, these tensions raise an important question that Defense Express would like to address: what is Norway's capacity to defend itself if russian decides to go beyond only diplomatic attacks on the country's sovereignty. For that, we turn to The Military Balance 2024 study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Norwegian M113 / Defense Express / russia Calls Out Norway For Militarizing Svalbard, Setting the Stage For War — How Strong is NATO's Northern Flank?
Norwegian M113 / Photo credit: Forsvaret

According to the data listed in this reference book, the Norwegian armed forces numbered 25,400 active servicemen and another 40,000 in the Norwegian Home Guard (Heimevernet) which is the local variety of a quick mobilization force for times of crises. The 2024 defense budget was $7 billion.

The land forces branch numbered 3,900 regular servicemen and 4,400 reservists, essentially united in one brigade, one light infantry battalion of the Royal Guard, and one mechanized reconnaissance battalion. At their disposal were 36 Leopard 2A4 tanks (and 8 more in storage), 21 CV9030N MkIIIB armored vehicles in the reconnaissance modification and 76 CV9030Ns in the infantry fighting vehicle version, 390 armored personnel carriers, and 160 wheeled armored vehicles.

Artillery arsenal counted 24 K9 self-propelled guns, 16 mortars (81mm) on CV90 chassis, and 12 M125A2 self-propelled mortars, 115 towed L16 mortars (81mm). Air defense was ensured by six NASAMS III missile systems.

We should also mention the contingent of 1,100 U.S. troops deployed in Norway, including an artillery battalion with M109 self-propelled guns (155mm).

The Norwegian Navy has four frigates and six submarines, six Skjold missile corvettes, six CB90N landing craft, four minesweepers, and two electronic intelligence ships.

The Norwegian Air Force operates 40 F-35A fighters, five P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine aircraft, four C-130J-30 Hercules transport jets, 15 MFI-15 Safari trainers, as well as helicopters: 13 AW101, 10 Sea King Mk43B, 6 Bell 412HP, and 12 Bell 412S.

F-35 from the Norwegian Air Force / Defense Express / russia Calls Out Norway For Militarizing Svalbard, Setting the Stage For War — How Strong is NATO's Northern Flank?
F-35 from the Norwegian Air Force / Photo credit: Luftforsvaret
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