It is highly unlikely that russia will attempt an assault crossing of the Dnipro: it would likely be extremely complex and costly, according to the UK Defense Ministry’s Defense Intelligence update.
Since russia withdrew its forces from the west bank of the Dnipro in November 2022, skirmishing and reconnaissance has continued on the complex network of islands and waterways which make up the Dnipro delta.
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As previously reported, the russian military wants to create a "grey zone" on both banks of the Dnipro, so they shell the temporarily occupied bank to force people to leave.
Russian forces have almost certainly used small boats to try to main a presence on key islands, but Ukraine has successfully deployed long-range artillery to neutralise russian outposts a number of times, the UK Defense Intelligence update reads.
“Both sides have likely also deployed small groups on the Kinburn Spit, which commands the Dnipro Gulf,” UK Defense Ministry claims.
Moreover, Ukraine and russia aim to maintain a presence in these areas to control maritime access to the strategically important river and to provide warning of any attempt by their adversaries to launch a major assault across the river.
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