During a concentrated missile attack on Ukraine on January 2, 2024, russian forces used almost every type of long-range weapons at their disposal, including Shahed-class loitering munitions and Kh-47 Kinzhal ballistic missiles. When the dust settled, it turned out not only Ukrainian cities were attacked — there were reports of damage to the russian village of Petropavlovka in the Voronezh region.
According to local russian authorities, "in seven households, the glass, roof, and supporting structures may be damaged." Footage from the scene showed crushed houses, cars, and a substantial crater in the middle of the village.
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Reports that one of the Russian missiles fell off in Russia's Voronezh during a missile attack on Ukraine.A Russian village has been destroyed by a Russian missile. pic.twitter.com/z12sRh9K6W— Clash Report (@clashreport) January 2, 2024
The official explanation provided by russian authorities attributed the damage to the "extraordinary release of an aircraft munition," a wording we had heard in the past.
While the specific type of the munition was not disclosed, public data from the Air Force of Ukraine suggests several possibilities.
Tu-95MS bombers with Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles were reportedly heading toward their usual weapon release area over the Caspian Sea. However, it was unlikely that a missile accidentally fell off these bombers and caused damage to Petropavlovka because the village is located only 75 km from the Ukrainian border, and there's no need for aircraft to risk approaching Ukraine-controlled airspace so much.
Additionally, the Air Force of Ukraine reported the use of Kh-47 Kinzhal "hypersonic" missiles launched from MiG-31K. Still, their trajectory was said to be directed towards Kyiv across the Sumy region of Ukraine, not nearly close to the Petropavlovka. Much more likely the missiles were launched from the Tula or Ryazan regions, further into russia, as evidenced by an earlier episode of a Kinzhal missile part falling near Mazalka village in August 2023.
One potential explanation is that it was a Kh-31P anti-radar missile carried by a Su-35 aircraft flying over the Voronezh region, as they were also recorded in tonight's attack. This type of missile has a 90-kg high-explosive warhead.
That said, there is another possibility that a launched Kh-101 or Kh-555 cruise missile fell off its course or malfunctioned, causing it to fall in the Petropavlovka area. The weight of the Kh-555 warhead is estimated at 400 kg, which aligns more closely with the observed consequences of the explosion.
And the reason why russian authorities attributed the incident to an "extraordinary release" of a munition is that this is the only explanation they are allowed to voice out to the public. Because in their paradigm, it can shift the blame to the crew or maintenance staff rather than the highly advertised equipment and "one-of-their-kind" weapons.
Worth noting, incidents of russian cruise missiles falling on russian territory have occurred before. In December 2022, during two launches, some cruise missiles launched by the russian aircraft from over the Saratov region fell immediately after separation from the aircraft, missile debris used to be found in Volgograd region, too.
Read more: It Seems That 50% of russia’s Cruise Missiles Fall Before Entering Ukraine - Russian Propagandists Declassified Missiles Number in Monday's Missile Salvo
