The russian military command appears to be giving priority to the Avdiivka area in Donetsk region. Their decision to allocate a battalion’s worth of tanks for an attack near Avdiivka suggests that this assault is a top priority for them. Looking ahead, it is possible that the russian command will concentrate their upcoming offensive operation, forecasted for late spring/summer 2024, on western Donetsk region.
This strategy aims to capitalize on the russian forces’ incremental progress in this region. Ukrainian officials have recently raised concerns about russian forces gathering personnel along various axes, including the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhzhia region. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) maintains that due to russia’s manpower and planning constraints, russian forces are likely to focus on launching a large-scale offensive operation in one direction at a time.
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