Recent insider news from the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung stirred an argument about Berlin's commitment to supporting Ukraine in its fight against russia, announced publicly yet followed by the controversial decision to suspend any further military aid donations.
The details about these austerity measures were covered in detail in our previous article, this time we'll focus on real and potential consequences and nuances left out of sight. The most important here is that all the deliveries planned for this year will be fulfilled as planned, the support cutbacks only affect the German allocations from 2025 onward.
Read more: Germany Won't Allocate Any More Money to Aid Ukraine — Media
An important factor here is that Germany is nearing the election period, scheduled for September–October 2025, that is, a bit over a year from now. With the finishing line of the political race in sight, German politicians strive to score points with the electorate, so all and any word or action, especially related to such a sensitive topic as Ukraine aid, should be viewed through the prism of the rivalry on the internal politics arena.
Additional allocations of defense equipment for Ukraine have already been frozen, particularly, the publicly declared promise to finance one more IRIS-T air defense system after russia had struck a children's hospital in Kyiv with a missile attack, will not be kept. The funds will be provided by Norway instead, according to prior agreements in July.
On the other hand, all that has been contracted so far will be delivered. The important part is that for a while now, a lion's share of military equipment Germany has been giving to Ukraine was not from its own stocks but ordered from the industry. The only recent supplies directly from Bundeswehr was the Patriot anti-missile / air defense system with a batch of interceptors, the rest came from local defense factories.
Given that contracts usually take 1 to 2 years to fulfill, the weapons contracted in 2024 are expected to arrive all the way until 2026. The downside is that from 2025 onward, the amount of aid will decrease drastically, from €8 billion in 2024 down to €4 billion next year, according to relevant budget plans. That means less weaponry will be coming from Germany in 2026–2027, and the amount will keep dropping, with €3 billion set aside for supplies to Ukraine for 2026, per €0.5 bln in 2027 and 2028, respectively.
As noted in the article from FAS, Berlin hopes that it will be able to finance further provisions using the windfall profits of the frozen assets of the russian central bank. Overall, the G7 countries arrested approximately €260 billion. Regardless, only about €3.95 bln are in Germany. Though the exact mechanism of this scheme is not clear. If the collective assets around all of Europe will be used as one, it's a whole different story because in Belgium, where russia kept the biggest share of its abroad assets, their value amounts to €190 billion. The windfall profits they generated to the depositary, Euroclear company, was estimated at €4.4 bln in 2023.
All in all, for now, this topic remains speculation based on anonymous insiders, not verified facts. The situation will become clear only after the budget process in the Bundestag moves to the voting stages. Until that happens, it will remain a debate about proposals.
Read more: Defense Express Weekly Review: Ukraine's Breakthrough in Kursk Demonstrates to NATO How to Combat russia, Capture russian Volnorez EW System, How Many Tu-22M3 Left in russia
