Open-source intelligence keeps providing updates on the strange activity of the russian long-range aviation — valuable insights to assess the threat of new airstrikes on Ukraine. A recent post dated May 26 from AviVector helps in monitoring this activity.
The images indicate the presence of 11 Tu-95MS bombers, about 20% of the available fleet of this aircraft type, at the Olenya Air Base on the Kola Peninsula, near Murmansk. Besides combat aircraft, five An-12 transport jets, which could belong either to the air force or the navy.
Read more: russia Has Over Forty Tu-22M3 Heavy Bombers at Belaya Airbase, Shuffles Tu-95MS and Tu-160s To and Fro (Updated)
A detail worth pointing out is that despite having 11 Tu-95MS bombers at the time at Olenya, only three were deployed from this air base during the May 26 missile attack on Ukraine. This could point to the actual level of combat readiness of the bombers to depart on a mission.
Besides the overview of Olenya, AviVector offers a look at the Engels Air Base, aka Engels-2. Sitting just 500 km from Ukraine's border, aircraft at this airfield pose an immediate threat of airstrikes on Ukrainian territory. From May 25 to May 27, 2025, the recorded presence unfolded as follows:
- Tu-95MS: six units (25/5) --> two (26/5) --> two (27/5)
- Tu-160 three --> three --> two
- Su-34 four --> two --> none
- one Il-76 appeared on May 27 carrying military cargo.
It is claimed that after the May 26 missile strike on Ukraine, seven Tu-95MS jets landed at Engels, and one more flew straight to Olenya.
All these maneuvers suggest that russians may be trying to constantly move their bombers between different airfields on purpose. Particularly, in order to confuse the intelligence services of Ukraine and its partners. Possibly, to make it difficult to catch the exact moment the aircraft takes off for another sortie to deliver a new missile strike on Ukraine.
What's notable is that these deception tactics come at the cost of overusing the jets, wasting the limited operating life resource measured in effective flight hours left for these Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, and Tu-160 bombers.
Update: the earlier version of this article contained unverified information about the transfers of as many as 40 Tu-22M3 strategic bombers in active service between russian airbases Belaya and Olenya. Such an impression appeared mistakenly without taking into account that many of the mentioned aircraft were non-operational, as clarified by AviVector:
"The number of Tu-22M3s at Belaya remains largely unchanged. Most of those observed at Olenya are donors, have been stationed there for a long time, and aren't actively used aircraft."
The erroneous parts were removed from the text. Defense Express editorial staff sincerely apologizes for the oversight.
We appreciate the trust of Ukrainian media, but we must clarify that we have not reported any redeployment of 40 Tu-22M3 bombers from Belaya Air Base to Olenya Air Base. This information does not reflect our observations.The number of Tu-22M3s at Belaya remains largely… pic.twitter.com/vz8NXUKv0C
— AviVector (@avivector) May 29, 2025
Read more: China Considered Buying 36 russian Tu-22M3 Strategic Bombers for $1.5B, Dropped the Deal After 2022
