After the truly earthquaking explosions at the ammunition warehouse near the town of Toropets, russia, the logical question arises: what will be the next target? After all, the Ukrainian Defense Forces didn't just eliminate any ordinary ammo storage but the 107th Arsenal, one of the key supply depots of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) of the russian Ministry of Defense. The estimated stockpile of munitions kept there, including air defense and tactical ballistic missiles, was around 30,000 tons.
The total number of GRAU arsenals isn't particularly large — around twenty or so across the russian federation. However, due to historical circumstances, many of them were built in the rear of the Soviet army’s potential attack routes during the Cold War against NATO, which means they are located in the geographically European part of russia.
Read more: Satellite Images Reveal Explosions Near Toropets: Could Something More Powerful Than Palianytsia Be Involved?
What exactly caused the explosions at the 107th Arsenal remains unknown, though some reports suggest the involvement of Ukraine’s new "rocket drone" weapon, Palianytsia. For this overview, let's limit our list of targets to those within 750 km from the borders of Ukraine — the assumed range of Palianytsia. With that in mind, here's what the situation looks like:
23rd Arsenal of GRAU
Located just 16 km south of the destroyed 107th Arsenal near Toropets, the 23rd GRAU arsenal is a smaller facility, roughly half the size of its neighbor: 2.6 square kilometers, compared to the 107th’s 5 square kilometers. While the type of ammunition stored there is unclear, the fact that the 107th was targeted over this one suggests it holds less strategic value.
13th Arsenal of GRAU
Further north, in the Novgorod region near the village of Kotovo, lies the 13th arsenal overseen by GRAU. Located about 680 km from Ukraine’s border, it sits roughly 200 km further from Ukraine than Toropets. This facility covers about 3 square kilometers.
51st Arsenal of GRAU
A more challenging target, due to its proximity to dense air defenses, is the 51st GRAU arsenal, situated east of Moscow near Kirzhach in the Vladimir region. This relatively large warehouse spans 3.5 square kilometers and lies 530 km from the Ukrainian border.
73rd Arsenal of GRAU
In the same region, the 73rd GRAU arsenal sits near the villages of Ivanovo, Krutovo, and Esino. It is one of the largest, covering around 7 square kilometers. Between 2018 and 2021, it underwent extensive repairs and modernization, much like the destroyed 107th. Accordingly, this arsenal likely stores not only large quantities of ammunition but also valuable defense products. It is located 650 km from the border with Ukraine.
67th Arsenal of GRAU
One of the closest is the 67th GRAU arsenal, situated near Karachev in the Bryansk region, just 114 km from Ukraine. This facility, right next to a town of 20,000 people, spans 3.5 square kilometers. Satellite imagery from 2021 shows some ammunition was stored in the open air.
68th Arsenal of GRAU
The most distant target, roughly 700 km from the front line, is the 68th GRAU arsenal near Mozdok in North Ossetia. This warehouse, covering an area of 2.2 square kilometers, has recently been modernized, too.
It’s important to note that this list only includes GRAU warehouses and does not take into account other significant depots, such as the one near Voronezh, which was destroyed by Ukrainian strike on August 24th, 2024, and housed over 5,000 tons of munitions at the time. Additionally, Ukraine’s potential targets aren’t limited to ammunition depots — production facilities, including those involved in manufacturing of explosive materials, could also be at risk.
Read more: Ukrainian Strikes on russian Logistics, How They’re Expanding the Pressure on russian Forces
