U.S. capture of Kharg Island, through which about 90% of all iranian oil exports pass, looks like an irreversible scenario. It’s one of few reasons for transferring Amphibious Ready Groups, one of which headed by USS Tripoli (LHA-7) is already in the region, while USS Boxer (LHD-4) is en route.
However, assessments of this operation's possibility and success differ greatly, from optimistic to apocalyptic in the literal sense. In particular, American think tank Council on Foreign Relations called Kharg Island an attractive target.
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After all, this small reef island of 8 by 4.5 km is indeed the most important in iran's entire oil system, as it has deep-water terminals that allow accepting supertankers that simply cannot dock at shallow coastal waters of mainland iran.
In other words, this island is the key to virtually all iranian oil, estimated at 12% of world reserves. Capturing the island would leave iran without oil revenue sources that comprise about 50% of the entire budget revenue side. This means Washington may indeed throw significant resources at its capture.
Its capture for American armed forces, despite all possible difficulties, is quite possible. This is discussed in more detail in material for War on the Rocks, which called capturing Kharg Island senseless.
For American marines and landing forces, landing on the island with total air superiority isn't impossible, although significant problems may arise due to dense island mining by iranians.
However, real problems will begin at the stage of holding positions, because it’s only 30 km from the island to iran's coast. American military will immediately come under fire from the mainland and begin suffering systematic losses, particularly from drones.
Then Washington will face only two negative decisions withdraw troops and admit defeat, or expand the control zone by starting a full-scale ground operation.
War on the Rocks proceeds from the assumption that iran may not want to subject the island to massive bombardment after American troops land, as this could lead to destruction of its critically important infrastructure. Restoring it would be expensive and take many years.
However, Defense Romania described an alternative scenario in quite detail, recalling what order Saddam Hussein gave in 1991 to set fire to Kuwait's oil wells, as well as pour all oil from tankers and the marine oil terminal into the sea. As a result, according to balanced estimates, 4 million barrels of oil spilled into the Persian Gulf, with maximum estimates at 11 million barrels.
Thus, one shouldn't dismiss the scenario where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is responsible for Kharg's defense, opens valves and sets fire to reservoirs, creating a real Armageddon on the island.
Moreover, this isn't only about a fire trap for American military. This is also about destroying this key to iranian oil, which will ultimately send oil prices into space, as well as a large-scale environmental catastrophe.
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