During russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Finland became an important partner for strengthening Ukraine’s army. In particular, the country made a tangible contribution to the "tank coalition" handing over three Leopard 2R sapper tanks. But now two events are happening with Finland, which will in their own way affect the level of further Ukraine’s support.
Firstly, on April 4, 2023, Finland officially became a NATO member, and it will already have to prepare for repelling various hypothetical russia’s responses. Secondly, after the sensational elections in Finland, the government changed, Petteri Orpo, who also takes a pro-Ukrainian position, became the new prime minister instead of Sanna Marin.
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The configuration is as follows. It is hardly worth hoping that in the foreseeable future Finland will be able to allocate for Ukraine such desired samples of Western weapons as the Leopard 2A4 from storage (about 100 units), or even F/A-18 fighters, which will be written off only as the country gets F-35.
But on the other hand, it is likely that Finland will look for alternative ways how to increase military aid for Ukraine, and here it is appropriate to mention the following option.
The Finnish army had 18 Giatsynt-S self-propelled guns in service, which were put into storage in 2010, and the further fate of these SPG’s is unknown.
In September 2022, Oryx analysts assumed that Finland could have already supplied Ukraine with its them. But now the country has changed the wording: just "applicant for supply".
In addition, in 2010, the Finnish army also had three batteries of the Buk air defense systems (locally named the ITO 96) with a total of 18 launchers, but were decommissioned after the deployment of the NASAMS SAM. As of September 2022, Oryx claimed that Finland may have a certain number of anti-aircraft guns and the 9M38 anti-aircraft missiles for the Buk.
Accordingly, if such anti-aircraft means are still in storage in Finland, they could strengthen the defense of Ukraine's skies as well. Also, there may be an option not only with the regular use of the 9M38 missiles, but also the use of Buk launchers for the project to adapt to the AIM-7 Sea Sparrow anti-aircraft missiles, which first became known in January 2023 year.
But it is obvious that the possible implementation of these two options with the Giatsynt-S SPG and the the Buk SAM to be transferred to Ukraine will depend not only on the actual condition of this equipment, but also on the dynamics of political and security agreements between Finland and Ukraine.
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