After Berlin quite unexpectedly announced that it is urgently transferring another Patriot surface-to-air missile system to Ukraine, the question of who will be the next donor becomes quite interesting.
The thing is, Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba noted that negotiations are underway regarding two Patriots and one SAMP/T.
Read more: Germany "Immediately" Sends Patriot to Ukraine – Pistorius
As for the potential donor of SAMP/T, there is no intrigue because these air defense systems are only operated in Western countries, specifically in France and Italy. However, predicting another Patriot air defense systems donor could be significantly more challenging. Specifically, Germany has been and remains the largest operator of Patriots in Europe. Even after transferring effectively three batteries out of 12, they still have nine remaining, but this means that Berlin has already transferred 25%.
Next in terms of the number of Patriot systems among the countries of the European segment of NATO is, surprisingly, Greece. It is armed with a total of six batteries, but with the PAC-2 version, which cannot intercept ballistic targets using MSE missiles.
The notion of Greece becoming a Patriot donor is rather challenging to believe. As recently as March 2024, Greek media indicated that Athens was on the verge of transferring air defense systems to Ukraine. However, they were referring to the Soviet-era S-300 systems, in exchange for Patriots.
Following in terms of the number of air defense systems among EU countries is Romania, which relatively recently received them in quantities of up to four batteries and expects three more. Moreover, Bucharest, by virtue of having allocated $4 billion for these reduced-capacity systems (with four launchers each), is unlikely to be willing to give up even one.
Like Warsaw, which, although it has two batteries, but a reinforced structure with two radars in each, that is, which can be easily converted into four. At the same time, Poland will consider the possibility of sharing missiles for Soviet-era air defense systems.
The Netherlands has three batteries, but recently, the Chief of the Netherlands Defense Staff, Onno Eichelsheim, announced that the Dutch army needs to strengthen its air defense because three Patriot systems are insufficient for the country.
Spain has three Patriot surface-to-air missile systems, albeit in the PAC-2 version. In addition, this country was already considered as a possible donor of this system back in June 2023. However, Turkey became an obstacle to the transfer.
Finally, if not Spain, then Sweden becomes the last European country capable of transferring one Patriot. Currently, it is only in the stage of receiving the ordered four reduced-composition batteries with three launchers each. Swedish Patriot systems are expected to achieve full operational readiness only in 2025.
Read more: Germany's Initiative: Seeking Patriot Systems Worldwide for Ukraine - Locations, Numbers, and Potential Challenges
