Ukraine will have Western fighter jets, Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov believes, despite quite pessimistic voices saying the issue was postponed until the war with russia ends. But the precedent with tanks shows there is still an open possibility to get them sooner.
In an interview to German newspaper Bild, Ukrainian top official said the Air Force of Ukraine be able to keep two or three active types of fighter aircraft.
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"I'm sure we'll have two to three types of fighter jets, there will be one main bird. And it will depend on which one is best for Ukraine. For our airfields, for our engineers, for maintenance," Reznikov said. Just like the Leopard 2 became the main tank provided by a "tank coalition" of allies and supplemented by Challenger 2 from the UK and Abrams from the USA, one type will be the primary power supplemented by others within the new "fighter jets coalition", Ukrainian defense minister expects.
Given the context, these "two to three fighters" mentioned by minister Reznikov are not about the MiG-29 and Su-27 that are currently in service. Rather than that, he was apparently speaking of the Western types. And the reason to have this many is not because Ukraine is trying to have an "aviary" but the limited resources available to Ukraine's allies and partners at the moment.
In particular, the chance of getting a few dozen F-16 at once is now complicated by the public position of the USA which is the only country that has enough jets to make it happen.
As a reminder, a few days ago Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl during the hearings in Congress stated that aircraft supplies are currently not included in Ukraine's top three priorities. Furthermore, the Pentagon says the terms for potential deliveries would be: no less than 18 months for pilot training and up to 24 months for the aircraft transfer, or 3 to 6 years to make and deliver newer fighter versions.
Meanwhile in Europe, we can hear discussions regarding some other types of modern aircraft brought up more and more often. Those aircraft we almost neglected just last summer, now re-emerging in the media domain: paneuropean Tornado and French Mirage 2000.
Speaking of which, the transfer of Mirage 2000 was debated during the hearings in the French Senate on February 28. As for Tornado, there is nothing in particular yet, but multiple countries are in process of decommissioning those which creates a prospect for Ukraine to get them.
Back to minister Reznokov and the "third" type of Western aircraft he mentioned. The words about the "main bird" suggest that it will be a full-fledged 4+ gen fighter. One of the most realistic variants is to get some used F-16 from the Netherlands.
At the same time, Oleksii Reznikov's statement may well be a rather pragmatic appeal to the manufacturers of fighter jets. Because acquiring the status of Ukraine's "main bird" for an aircraft means a significant long-term order from the country.
The interesting point is, Ukraine's real need for multirole fighters, according to the Air Force Command estimates, is up to 180 aircraft. At current prices, such a contract can be evaluated up to $30 billion protracted over a period of more than 10 years. And perhaps this very factor will speed up the decision-making process regarding aircraft provision for Ukraine.
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