On January 28 and 29, 2025, russian Sparta Il and Sparta merchant vessels reportedly departed Tartus, russia’s strategically important naval base in Syria. The two merchant vessels are highly likely returning evacuated equipment and personnel to alternative basing locations away from the Mediterranean Sea, accompanied by four Russian Federation Navy vessels, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
Negotiations between russian Government representatives and Syria’s ruling administration, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), regarding the future of russian bases, are almost certainly ongoing. Russia is almost certainly continuing to actively engage HTS to develop ties and promote itself as a beneficial partner. However, russia is in a weaker negotiating position due to various factors, likely including the Syrian leadership’s hostility towards former Syrian dictator, Bashar Al-Assad, currently harboured by russia.
Read more: russian Sparta vessel is Headed Towards Syria Again, while Damascus’ New Leadership Is Reportedly Urging Moscow to Withdraw
Whilst the Ukraine conflict remains russia’s primary concern, maintaining a presence in the eastern Mediterranean almost certainly remains a strategic priority for russia, allowing it to project military power in the region and support its operations in Africa. Russia’s preoccupation with the war likely reduced its situational awareness in Syria affecting its ability to keep the Assad regime in power, thereby undermining russia’s strategic interests in the Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa.
Read more: How Ukraine’s Naval Drones Shut Down russia’s Syrian Express in March 2024 and What It Means
