Russia has highly likely begun a coordinated offensive across multiple axes in the east of Ukraine. russian forces in Donetsk are conducting a combined arms offensive on the heavily defended town of Avdiivka, which has been on the front line since 2014. The town is a major obstacle in preventing russian forces from their wider objective of taking control of Donetsk region.
Russia’s attack is likely being carried out with multiple armoured battalions, which are attempting to envelop the town. It is likely to be the most significant offensive operation undertaken by russia since at least January 2023.
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Entrenched Ukrainian forces have so far likely held back the russian advance, with the latter sustaining heavy equipment and personnel losses. Slow progress and high casualties have likely triggered a change in messaging from russia, from an offensive to “active defense”, as successfully clearing Avdiivka looks increasingly unlikely in the short term.
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