The news from Ukraine's frontline about russian offensive in the north of Kharkiv Oblast stirred up not only Ukrainian society, but also the world. Experts of the Kyiv Security Forum (KSF) try to answer the question of what exactly made Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the positions they held after Ukraine's stunning success in the fall of 2022.
Experts believe that russian offensive in the north of Kharkiv Oblast will not lead to the capture of a large area, but will divert valuable reserves of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, the issue of air capabilities and artillery remains crucial. And it has its consequences, as a new russian offensive in the northern Kharkiv Oblast has created two small saggings in the frontline up to 5 kilometers deep.
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Analyzing the situation on the ground and data on the number of russian troops, Ukrainian commanders and experts agree that this is a tactical offensive that would not pose a threat of losing a large area.
The KSF emphasizes that available russian forces are not enough to capture Kharkiv. Observers note that russian grouping in this area has no more than 10,000 occupiers and consists mostly of inexperienced reserve units (which often make fatal mistakes in combat).
Experts are confident that russia's main goal is definitely to draw the scarce reserves of the Defense Forces of Ukraine from other parts of the frontline. And this is at a time when the Defense Forces of Ukraine have just begun to replenish their stocks of ammunition and equipment from new US aid packages. At the same time, the KSF assures that the "shell famine" is increasingly being quenched. Videos of russian attacks that were repelled by artillery (including DPICM cluster shells) are coming from several parts of the frontline. At the same time, the reserves of Ukrainian warriors remain insufficient.
According to some experts, another strategic goal of russian occupiers is a shallow attack on the rear of the Ukrainian forces (from the northwest, from Vovchansk city) that are holding back russian attacks at the Kupiansk sector of the frontline. It is noted that the russian forces may not be enough for this task.
According to the KSF, another russia's goal is to implement putin's dubious idea of creating a "buffer zone" on the territory of Ukraine opposite Belgorod, to allegedly "prevent shelling" (in fact, for military and political purposes). In both of these cases, russians are favored by the nature of the border terrain (including rivers), as well as the enormous depth of russian rear in this direction.
Analyzing the reasons for occupiers's advance in this area, experts emphasize on russian superiority in the air and artillery. It should be noted that Ukraine's entire border area from Kupiansk to Chernihiv has been subjected to daily artillery and air strikes by russian invaders for two years to a depth of 10-20 km, especially since mid-2023, when Moscow launched a massive conversion of aerial bombs into guided bombs (UMPC guided stand-off glide kit). Even if the Defense Forces of Ukraine could keep more reserves and artillery here, the lack of air defense as well as sufficient amount of shells would not be able to ensure a reliable defense of this area.
Experts also emphasize such a problem as the ban on the use of Western weapons for counterattacks against russia's territory. In particular, ISW American research group wrote about this on May 14. ISW researcher George Barros uses the term "russia's Sanctuary". The point is that, thanks to this ban, russians were able to use their border to strike Ukraine's territory with impunity for a year and a half, until the Defense Forces of Ukraine received a huge amount of attack drones and moved Soviet-made artillery (as well as MLRS made in the Czech Republic, which does not object to counterattacks against russia) from the frontline.
But this is not news. Several Western generals in retired, including participants of Kyiv Security Forum, have long publicly demanded the elimination of the "Sanctuary" and the lifting of restrictions on the use of weapons as a prerequisite for the success of any counteroffensive by Ukraine.
The KSF notes that russia's air superiority dramatically reduces the effectiveness of the fortifications in Kharkiv Oblast (which are currently being actively discussed in the media), regardless of the quality of these fortifications. It should be noted that occupiers have recently captured Krasnohorivka and Maryinka cities through massive strikes by guided bombs. There were powerful fortifications of the Defense Forces of Ukraine that had been constantly improved since 2015.
In addition, the experts note a strategic problem for Kharkiv. The problem is a lack of air defense systems while Kharkiv is a metropolis that is an extremely strong fortified area for ground defense, but the city cannot have a sustainable socio-economic life because of its proximity to the frontline.
According to the KSF experts, russian mini-offensive in Kharkiv Oblast just confirms the need for Ukraine's smart strategy, which should consist of smart defense and the moving of the aerial warfare to russia. In a situation where neither side has reserves for a strategic ground offensive, the course of the war will be determined by aerial strikes on the enemy frontline and rear logistics, and so by the ability of the parties to adapt their ground tactics and logistics to aerial threats.
Earlier Defense Express reported about critical problems of Ukrainian frontline, and what could improve situation.
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