The British think tank RUSI has published an analysis of the prospects for this summer's offensive campaign, given russia's intention to continue its war against Ukraine.
The most pessimistic scenario: if the russian army fulfills its plan in the Donetsk region in the summer of 2025, it may launch an offensive on Kharkiv in fall. At the same time, there are two important elements of Ukrainian defense that the russians will certainly try to hit in order to weaken the capabilities of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. The guided bombs with UMPK kits (UMPK stands in russian for universal guidance and correction module) will be used for this purpose.
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The phrase "russian offensive" typically evokes images of a large-scale mechanized breakthrough in the Soviet style.
The current russian army lacks such a force but is capable of conducting offensive actions characterized by pushing through resistance despite suffering losses numbering hundreds of infantrymen for just a few dozen meters of advance.
russia has no problems recruiting new personnel now, but it is expected that in the fall of 2025 the aggressor country's economy may face significant problems that will affect the ability to finance the war against Ukraine. Against this backdrop, it is logical to assume that by this fall, russia will try to gain the maximum advantage on the battlefield, leading the enemy to intensify its efforts at the front.
RUSI identifies two key elements of the Ukrainian defense that russians will attack most fiercely. Both of these elements are related to unmanned weapons. The first is detection systems that enable the Ukrainian military to identify and effectively intercept enemy UAVs in advance. The second element is the reconnaissance and strike drone teams, which are causing significant problems for tussian forces at the front.
It is assumed that the main striking force of the russian federation will be guided aerial bombs. This intensifies the need to develop effective countermeasures against enemy bombs.
Earlier Defense Express reported that russia had fielded new nuclear air-to-air missiles.
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