The video released by the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) showing the launch of drones to destroy the 107th GRAU arsenal of the russian Ministry of Defense near Toropets in Tver Oblast contained a clue not only about which UAVs were used for this purpose.
Despite the lack of information about the launch site and less than 30 seconds of night-time footage, partly captured through a night-vision device, there is enough evidence to conclude that the drones were launched from russian territory.
Read more: First Look at russia's Jet Shahed Shot Down by Ukraine
These are images showing the night sky and stars. Since the exact date of the attack is known — September 18, 2024 — it is possible to reconstruct the starry sky of that day and, using a virtual planetarium, determine orientation in both space and time.
At the center of the frame is the Pegasus constellation, partially hidden by the drone, which also looks like a star. Camera distortion from shooting through night vision equipment should also be considered.
To be sure, we examine another frame where the starry sky appears slightly to the right of the operator.
The Cygnus constellation is still visible in its correct position.
However the direction of the drone launch is not the most important thing. The launch time provides much more information, as it occurred in the early morning hours. The 107th GRAU arsenal was hit no later than 3:56 a.m. local time. Given the 500 km range, the FP-1 launch likely took place around midnight, with both constellations high above the horizon.
So, with strong probability, the drone was launched from russian territory. This means that a truly unique special operation with a deep raid into enemy territory was necessary. In turn, the SSU called this strike one of the most daring. This indicates that the drone launch was far from ordinary.
The risk, though the GRAU arsenal could be reached from Ukraine, can be explained by the fact that launching from the enemy rear likely helped bypass the facility's dense air defenses. In addition, the drone may have been equipped with an enlarged warhead.
It also allowed the drone to be steered precisely to strike munitions stored in the open. This may explain why one of the special forces soldiers visible in the frame is holding an object resembling an antenna.
At the same time, this is only a cautious assumption drawn from the SSU's published video. It is also possible that the published video refers to another episode and serves only as illustration.
Read more: Ukrainian Armor Launches Serial Production of UB60D FPV Drone, Discloses Output Figures
