The Lithuanian Baltic Defense Initiative think tank has released an analysis of how russia could force Lithuania to surrender within 90 days in 2027 without launching a full-scale ground operation.
The core of the forecast is an estimate that russia could launch up to 170,000 long-range Shahed drones at Lithuania over 60 days of hostilities, potentially destroying Vilnius and critical infrastructure. This is reported by Defense News.
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The scenario assumes that in 2027 the United States remains engaged in a prolonged military campaign against Iran, which would significantly reduce White House attention to European affairs.
Against this backdrop, analysts suggest that far-right forces may rise to power in parts of Europe, weakening collective security commitments. russia may seek to exploit this situation to launch an attack on the Baltic states in 2027.
Experts from the Baltic Defense Initiative say that after a 90-day campaign against Lithuania, the Kremlin could issue an ultimatum to the Baltic states, demanding they accept russian occupation forces or face expanded strikes on Estonia and Latvia.
At the same time, Thiebaut Devergranne, founder of the Baltic Defense Initiative, raised concerns over a "constitutional loophole," specifically the question of succession should both the president and the speaker of the Seimas be killed in russian attacks. At present, Lithuania's constitution does not provide an answer to this question.
From Defense Express we would like to note in this case Lithuanian experts deliberately exaggerated in order to encourage Baltic governments to accelerate the development of their own defense capabilities.
According to Defense News, Estonian intelligence believes it has at least two to three years to prepare for a potential war with russia.
Ivan Kyrychevskyi, serviceman of the 413th Raid Regiment of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine and weapons expert at Defense Express.
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