Concerns of possible repeat of attack on Kyiv are growing in Ukrainian society. Though the KSF experts say that new russian offensive from the northeast is currently impossible, sabotage attacks in this area are strategic threats. Invaders` maneuvers in Belarus as well as the GUR's report on 48 missile launchers deployed along the border with Ukraine are being discussed. Attacks by sabotage and terrorist groups as well as daily cross-border air and artillery strikes continue.
Read more: Ukraine Lacking a Fortified Line of Defense is a Problem, and It Must be Solved Quick
Experts of the Kyiv Security Forum analyzed strategic situation in the northeast of Ukraine.
Speaking of a new offensive, experts note that Kyiv remains constant strategic target of russian occupiers (as the Ukrainian government regularly warns). It will occur mostly from the northeast, just like in 2022.
However, experts believe that russia currently has lack of troops and equipment not only to repeat such offensive, but even to repel a hypothetical counteroffensive by Ukrainian army toward Bryansk and Voronezh Oblasts. There are also no capabilities and conditions for a second attack from the territory of Belarus so far. After all, russian offensive in Donetsk Oblast is being followed by rapidly spending reserves.
The KSF notes that deployment of additional 9K720 Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems has served to intensify ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv and Khmelnytsky Oblast in recent months. The key problem for russians is not location of launchers (they are relatively mobile), but the replenishment of missiles and insufficient capacity of Ukraine's missile defense.
The experts also identified the main problem of Ukraine `s northeastern area. This is an activity of invaders` sabotage and reconnaissance groups operating under cover of tactical aviation and artillery from the russian side of the border.
Based on this, the experts identified Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts as the least populated and most difficult to reach areas of Ukraine. There are forests and marshlands, with winding rivers. It is easy for saboteurs to act here while border guards and regular forces with armored vehicles face difficulties. Invaders also "fragmented" the border areas with air strikes on highway bridges across rivers in 2022-2023.
The KSF identifies the main goals of occupiers' subversive activity in the north-east of Ukraine:
● To extrude Ukrainian air defense forces and aviation from the border. It should be noted that air strikes against key regions of both sides take place here. For this purpose, russians attack local road and bridge, energy, emergency and medical infrastructure.
● To drag as much Ukraine`s army forces and equipment as possible away from Donetsk Oblast and the south fronline, where they are strategically defending the industrial areas of Kharkiv and Dnieper Ukraine.
● To gradually create a sabotage and tactical air threat to the economic centers of the North of Ukraine: Shostka, Sumy, Okhtyrka, Trostianets, Pryluky, Chernihiv, and Bakhmach.
Experts note that Ukraine is limited in ground forces and aviation capabilities to cover the Northeast (where several battalions of the Territorial Defence Forces are already operating, reinforced by a small number of artillery, tanks, and drones).
Therefore, experts point to possible ways to combat the sabotage threat:
● To strengthen anti-sabotage work of the National Guard, the National Police as well as the Security Service of Ukraine in this area.
● To actively relocate civilians and businesses.
● To increase the autonomy and resilience of local critical infrastructure.
● To transfer of aerial and land warfare to the occupiers` territory (including this direction, which is the most promising of all).
● To work with foreign partners to acquire air defense and aviation capabilities. After all, air operations will be crucial for controlling hard-to-reach "buffer" areas.
Earlier Defense Express reported about critical problems of Ukrainian frontline and what can improve situation.
Read more: KSF Experts Estimate that Defensive Strategy Can Be Quite Successful for Ukraine in War with russia
