The US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz said that Europe must take care of Ukraine's security without the United States involved. President Trump said the US could provide financial support to Ukraine in exchange for its rare earth materials. The American president had a conversation with Putin. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is going to have a meeting with US Vice President JD Vance during the Munich Security Conference. All these statements were analyzed by the experts of the Kyiv Security Forum.
Experts believe that the recent statements by US President Trump and his National Security Advisor Michael Waltz suggest a preference for a quick temporary ceasefire, with no indication of a real plan to end the war. That is why retired General Kellogg denied the information that such a plan would be presented.
The idea of US cooperation in the field of rare earth metals and minerals should be viewed as evidence of the new US administration's business approach to solving geopolitical problems. This statement is aimed at at both the Republican Party's electorate, who are being told that the assistance to Ukraine will be exchanged for its resources, and at possible long term economic cooperation.
Regarding russia's actions, the KSF experts expressed the following opinion: the Kremlin deliberately does not confirm contacts with Trump in order to downplay both the significance of such contacts and the strength of the new US administration. The Kremlin's message that they are not afraid of Trump, has become a key media point in russia.
KSF points out that no breakthrough ideas should be expected in Munich. There will be no plan for ending the war, established by the United States, the EU, and Ukraine. Nor will there be an approved format for negotiations (which the Kremlin is only willing to agree to if the terms of Ukraine's surrender are accepted).
Without the United States, it is impossible to provide real guarantees of Ukraine's security. The US, the EU, and Moscow all know this.
According to the KSF experts, Kellogg's visit to Ukraine might have an effect if a new aid package is announced, as well as the decision in Ramstein (where the US tranferred the presidency to the UK).
"We estimate the probability of the continuation of warfare in the next six months at nine out of 10 (same as the previous assessment) and the the risks of unfavorable negotiating conditions for Ukraine at eight out of 10 (one point higher than our previous assessment)," the statement reads.
As Defense Express wrote, KSF had reported on backroom negotiations between Donald Trump, Keith Kellogg, and Vladimir Putin on Ukraine.
