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ISW Named a Reason Why Kremlin does not Accuse Ukraine of Strikes on Crimea

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Explosions took place at the airfield in Novofedorivka in occupied Crimea
Explosions took place at the airfield in Novofedorivka in occupied Crimea

Moscow has little incentive to accuse Ukraine of conducting strikes that caused the damage since such strikes would demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defense systems, which the Ukrainian sinking of the Moskva had already revealed

This opinion, Institute for the Study of War (ISW) spread in its own report on August 9. Experts of the ISW also consider, that the apparent simultaneity of explosions at two distinct facilities likely rules out the official Russian version of accidental fire, but it does not rule out either sabotage or long-range missile strike. Ukraine could have modified its Neptune missiles for land-attack use (as the russians have done with both anti-shipping and anti-aircraft missiles), but there is no evidence to support this hypothesis at this time. Besides, russian milbloggers voiced differing opinions regarding the origin of the strike, with some speculating that Ukrainian forces used US-provided long-range army tactical missile systems (ATACMS). Ukrainian forces do not have the ATACMS systems, however.

As Media informed, Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9. Ukrainian officials have not claimed responsibility for this incident. Social media users reported witnessing 12 loud explosions at the Saky airbase in Novofedorivka on the Crimean western coast. Social media footage only showed the large cloud of smoke and the aftermath of the incident. Social media footage also showed a large smoke cloud near Novooleksiivka in Henichensk district, in the vicinity of the Kherson Oblast-Crimean border.Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan reported that explosions occurred on the Russian ammunition base but noted that there is no official confirmation of Ukrainian involvement in the incident.

Read more: Finding Sunk Cruiser Moskva: russia Try to Raise the Warship from the Black Sea Bottom

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that several aircraft munitions detonated in the storage areas of the Saky airbase due to poor fire protocol, rejecting reports that Ukrainian strikes or sabotage at the military facility caused the explosions. The Russian Defense Ministry added that the incident did not result in any casualties or damage to Russian aviation equipment. The Russian Health Ministry claimed that five civilians were wounded in the incident, however. Social media footage also showed firefighters extinguishing a burning plane, which also contradicts the original Russian Defense Ministry claim.

Read more: Ukrainian Military Official Confirms Ukrainian Attack on Air Base in Crimea, Credits to Partisan Movement on Peninsula
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