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Evidence Points to Another russian Shahed-136 Incursion 100 km into Poland, Warsaw Starts With Denial Again

Illustrative graphic by Defense Express / Map credit: Google Maps
Illustrative graphic by Defense Express / Map credit: Google Maps
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Everything points to a russian Shahed-family drone violating Polish airspace today, overnight on August 20, and crashing about 100 km from the border and 70 km from Warsaw, near the village of Osiny in the Lublin Voivodeship. For now, however, officials are calling it an "unidentified object" that fell and exploded around midnight.

The crash site was in a field outside the settlement, but the blast was strong enough to shatter windows in a nearby outbuilding. This has already been confirmed by the Polish police.

Read more: Romania Discovers russian Geran-1/2 Drone Fragments Near Ukrainian Border

At the site, investigators found a crater, metal and plastic fragments, and parts of a propeller, as confirmed by the Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces, which also reported that military units were involved in the inspection.

Later, a photo surfaced online showing the standard four-stroke MD550 engine, commonly used in Shahed drones deployed by the russian federation. Interestingly, this one had a silencer installed on the exhaust system — a rather unusual feature.

Remnants of the
Remnants of the "unidentified object" found near Osiny, Poland / Open-source photos

Yet, in Warsaw, the official line once again seems to begin with denial. The military command promptly stated that "after conducting preliminary analyses of radar system records, no violation of Polish airspace was recorded last night from either Ukraine or Belarus."

This mirrors earlier cases. When a russian Kh-55 cruise missile with a nuclear warhead simulator crashed near Bydgoszcz in May 2023 — some 450 km from the border — the initial response was also denial. Only later, after evidence mounted, was the violation admitted, sparking a scandal. Romania has used the same approach: russian Shaheds regularly fall on its territory, but are not immediately acknowledged.

At the same time, it is fair to note that without official photos from the crash site, it is still impossible to say with certainty what the object was. What is clear is that on the night of August 20, the russian federation carried out yet another combined long-range strike on Ukraine.

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the attack involved two Iskander-M ballistic missiles along with 93 Shahed drones and decoys, launched from multiple locations: Shatalovo, Bryansk, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and Cape Chauda in occupied Crimea.

Possible Shahed launch site and the crash location of the unidentified object in Poland / Illustrative graphic by Defense Express // Map credit: Google Maps
Possible Shahed launch site and the crash location of the "unidentified object" in Poland / Illustrative graphic by Defense Express // Map credit: Google Maps

That makes it highly plausible that a Shahed-136/131 launched from Shatalovo around 21:00 Kyiv time went down in Poland. Whether this incursion was intentional or the result of a malfunction may never be known.

Read more: After Entering Poland, russian Missile Was Cruising Right Above a Patriot Deployment Site and U.S. Army Base