Unverified footage of a flight performed by Su-17 is going viral on the internet. There is a person seen in a Ukrainian military camouflage pattern near the end of the video, thus a theory put forward by enthusiasts is that the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine might have put them into service.
The clip 8 seconds long is of too low quality to identify the insignia, there are no additional indications that this Su-17 with two fuel tanks actually belongs to the Ukrainian Air Force.
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On the contrary, the weather shown in the video doesn't match the past few rainy and cloudy days in most of Ukraine. That is, if we presume that this footage has been filmed recently. Besides, the contrails in the sky caught by the camera imply there was a civilian aircraft flying which is impossible as Ukraine had imposed a total wartime ban on flights in its airspace.
Theoretically, though, receiving a batch of Su-17s is entirely possible. More specifically, getting its export variant called Su-22. The only country able to provide them is Poland, the rest of the operators — Angola, Vietnam, Iran, Libya and Syria — are hardly worth considering.
Poland has 12 single-seat Su-22M4 combat jets and six two-seat Su-22UM3K trainer aircraft. Warsaw keeps them in operational condition, spending quite a lot on upkeep: in August 2021, the Polish Ministry of Defense spent 160 million zlotys, or roughly $50 mln to extend service life of Su-22s until 2024 when they start receiving F-35A.
Besides, these Su-22s are kept at the 21st Tactical Air Base in Świdwin. The surroundings of which look very similar to those in the video. These factors indicate that it might actually have been filmed in Poland, and the aircraft itself belongs to the Polish Air Force.
Nevertheless, even assuming that Warsaw gives some of its Su-22s to Ukraine, the capabilities of this aircraft are not that impressive. After all, it's an aircraft designed in the 1970s. On the flip side, as long as the aircraft preserves its operational state, the age doesn't matter for certain types of missions.
Especially if engineers manage to enable an ersatz-integration of Western weapons into its arsenal, so that it can enter the launch area and deploy weapons without entering airspace controlled by the enemy.
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