The delivery of the promised MiG-29 figter aircraft from Poland to Ukraine could occur within the next six months, contingent on the progress of Poland’s receipt of previously ordered F-35s from the USA.
This assessment was provided by Janusz Onyszkiewicz, a former Minister of National Defense of Poland, in a comment to Ukrinform. He noted, "The transfer of the remaining Polish MiG-29s to Ukraine will depend on the schedule of delivery of F-35s to Poland, which are to replace them. I think it may take about six months."
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A reminder from Defense Express, the possibility of transferring the remaining MiG-29s from Poland to Ukraine was established in a security agreement between the two countries in early July 2024. The Polish Air Force is estimated to have up to two dozen MiG-29s available for transfer.
Given this context, one might question why Ukraine still needs additional Soviet-standard fighters, particularly when it is focusing on Western aircraft, even allegedly pausing the supply of JAS 39 Gripen to simplify the F-16 transfer. Especially considering that Poland, too, is set to upgrade its figter fleet from 4th up to 5th generation by replacing its MiG-29s with F-35s.
Polish news outlet Defence24 in earlier this July provided some insight into the logic behind Warsaw's decision to transfer the MiG-29 to Ukraine. They highlighted two main factors: time and logistics. The Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel do not need separate retraining for these aircraft, and the existing infrastructure can support the maintenance of MiG-29s. Thus, the MiG-29s from Poland can be transferred to Ukraine quickly.
Moreover, MiG-29s are actively used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as platforms for strikes against Russian forces at the frontline, utilizing JDAM-ER, AASM Hammer, or other Western-type precision-guided aerial bombs. This demonstrates their continued utility in the role of "flying artillery."
Regarding the replacement factor, the situation is as follows: theoretically, an option where "air patrol" fighter jets from other NATO countries temporarily deploy at Polish air bases and cover Poland's airspace could be acceptable.
However, no Western countries are currently willing to agree to such a deployment. Therefore, for Poland, receiving replacement aircraft before transferring their remaining MiG-29s to Ukraine is a crucial factor.
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