The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has clearly described the current state of China's armed forces and what they could become in the foreseeable future if Beijing continues its rapid modernization.
Over the past few decades, the Chinese military has transformed, according to the report, into an "advanced lethal force capable of operating far beyond China's borders."
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China's Estimated Defense Spending
China's official defense budget for 2025 has been announced at $247 billion. Western experts, however, believe that it's actually much higher, exceeding $300 billion and possibly reaching $470 billion. According to estimates, the real figure for 2024 cited by CSIS is $318 billion.
China's Share of Global Defense Spending
In 2012, China's defense spending was one-sixth of the U.S. budget, and by 2024 it had risen to one-third. China spends five times more on its military than Japan and seven times more than South Korea. With a budget of $318 billion, China's defense spending is quite close to the $490 billion spent by all NATO members excluding the U.S. In comparison, the rest of the world spends $827 billion on defense.
The Growth of the PLA Navy
In 2014, China surpassed the U.S. in terms of the number of combat ships, but lags behind in terms of total tonnage, number of launchers, and aircraft carrier capabilities. According to forecasts, China will have a 1.5-fold advantage in ships by 2030.
China's Modernizing Air Forces
It is false to claim that the Chinese Air Force continues to fly MiG-19 and MiG-21 jets en masse. Around 2,200 aircraft make up China's total fleet, with roughly half being 4+ generation fighters. The number of truly old aircraft does not exceed 330, and the number of fifth-generation aircraft is rapidly increasing.
The Cross-Strait Power Imbalance
Xi Jinping has openly declared that the task of the Chinese armed forces is to be ready for a military takeover of Taiwan by 2027. The graph above illustrates the share of all Chinese forces currently focused on the island.
China's Growing Nuclear Warhead Stockpile
China's nuclear arsenal in 2025 is estimated at 600 warheads. According to Pentagon estimates, Beijing will have 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035. The U.S. and russia have 1,770 and 1,710 units deployed, respectively.
China's Evolving Missile Arsenal
Along with increasing its nuclear arsenal, Beijing is also building up its missile capabilities. China is actively producing medium-range ballistic missiles, which are sufficient for control in the region.
Increasing Military and Dual-Use Satellites
Over the past five years, China has tripled the number of military and dual-use satellites in orbit from 117 in 2019 to 267 in 2024. Among them, reconnaissance satellites have increased in number from 66 to 196.
Shrinking Ground Forces
The notion that the Chinese army still relies on "cannon fodder assaults" as its main tactic and strategy is highly misleading. Since 2015, Beijing has been reforming its military and has reduced its ground forces from 1.6 million to 0.96 million, a 40% reduction. However, the net reduction in the armed forces amounts to 300,000, since the same number of troops was allocated to create additional support units.
The PLA's Serious Corruption Problem
Xi Jinping is actively purging the senior leadership of the Central Military Commission. Over the past two years, two of its members have been dismissed, and one, who held the post of deputy, has simply disappeared.
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