It turns out that China was considering the possibility of buying 20 Russian Il-78 aerial refueling tankers. This is surprising, considering that China has its own similar YY-20 tanker aircraft. In turn, the fact that nothing is publicly known about this deal raises questions about whether the russian federation managed to sell its aircraft.
According to leaked documents of the russian Rostec state corporation for 2023, published by hackers from the Black Mirror team, we are talking about a modification of the Il-78MK-90A. It was planned that the deliveries would be completed in 2027-2028.
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We are talking about a special Chinese version, which is confirmed by the "K" index added to the name of the newest Il-78M-90A aerial refueling tanker, which exists in just one copy. Such a tanker aircraft is being produced on the basis of the Il-76MD-90A strategic airlifter, the production of which is quite problematic and constantly lags behind the declared plans.
Actually, it is the volumes of deliveries of the basic platform and the news about the 2020 order for tankers for the russian federation itself that already call into question the realism of the deal. However, this is not all, because the PRC has been producing its own YY-20 aerial refueling tanker based on the Y-20 large military transport aircraft for more than one year.
It is worth mentioning that currently the PRC Armed Forces have only 17 modern aerial refueling tankers, while the rest of the fleet consists of outdated H-6Us, based on strategic bombers from the 1950s, as well as Il-78 tanker aircraft purchased from Ukraine. This total fleet of tankers may not be enough to support a huge number of Chinese aircraft.
If China wants to soon organize an invasion of Taiwan as well to survive in a potential war with the United States, it needs to maintain its own aerial refueling capabilities. In view of this, it makes sense for China, despite having its own production, to purchase additional tanker aircraft from the russian federation.
However, nothing is currently known about the contract signed between the russian federation and the PRC, so there may be two options for the development of events. The first option may imply that the deal and its implementation are currently kept secret, so the result will be visible in satellite images or photographs in the future.
The second option may be associated with a significant decrease in the competence and capabilities of russian aircraft manufacturers, which may lead either to a significant delay in deliveries to the customer, or to the fact that the Chinese may conclude that they should look for other suppliers for rapid reinforcement.
One way or another, without precise confirmation, it is still impossible to say whether the purchase has actually taken place. At the same time, the very fact of interest indicates the Chinese need for a large number of aerial tankers, which may clearly be caused by China's preparations for potential conflict.
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