American military experts are currently considering the effectiveness of the Abrams main battle tank on the battlefield in 20 years, and at present, in the Army Science Board (ASB), the advantages of this tank are under threat.
The Army Science Board highlights how the scale and scope of potential threats to tanks and other armored vehicles only continue to grow. This already includes increasingly more capable ATGMs and other infantry anti-tank weapons, and drones. In addition, potential adversaries, especially near-peer competitors like China, are increasingly able to integrate "effects from air, sea, space, cyber, and electromagnetic spectrum operations" to support efforts on the ground.
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"The 2040 battlefield will likely see significant increases in the use of robotics for combat, ISR [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance], and logistics functions; AI [artificial intelligence]-aided capabilities to include target location and identification and platform movement; cyber-attacks on command-and-control facilities; longer-range indirect fire systems (both artillery and rockets/missiles) with increasingly capable precision munitions that can defeat anything they can acquire," the Army Science Board assesses.
What decision does ASB propose as a replacement for the M1 Abrams tank?
Experts suggest a variety of concepts that could be useful for American military forces in the 2040s. These concepts, based on ASB materials, are discussed in The War Zone publication.
The "lowest risk option" proposes creating a tank based on the M1 with a 130mm gun, a machine gun, and ATGM, weighing 55-60 tons, equipped with active protection systems and a hybrid powerplant.
As noted, the U.S. Army had previously hinted at a similar project when, in September of this year, the U.S. unexpectedly changed its plans for the development of the main battle tank, opting for the Abrams M1E3 over the modernization of the M1 Abrams SEPv4 version.
Furthermore, the authors recommend the Army also consider a new 35-to-40-ton light tank and a 20-to-30-ton "robotic wingman."
The light tank proposal is interesting given that the Army is also in the process of acquiring the M10 Booker. This is a 42-ton vehicle with a 105mm main gun.
The report also recommends that the Army engage with France and Germany, which are currently working together on a Main Ground Combat System (MGCS) tank project. Attention is also suggested to be directed towards programs like the 140mm tank gun by Nexter.
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