One scenario for supporting Ukraine with weapons to deter russia places the entire burden on Europe. This includes the scenario where Europe must purchase weapons from the U.S. and transfer them to Ukraine. It is important to consider that over 30% of the weaponry currently used by Ukraine’s Defense Forces comes from the U.S., as reported by Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Moreover, some items simply cannot be replaced. For example, Patriot air defense missiles can only be supplied by the U.S. because Europe does not produce them yet. Notably, the construction of COMLOG production facilities for GEM-T missiles only began in late 2024. Additionally, there is no clear alternative source for NASAMS missiles outside the U.S., which also affects the supply of AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles for F-16 fighter jets.
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Europe does not manufacture HIMARS rockets at all. Meanwhile, the issue of maintenance and ammunition supply for over 300 Bradley IFVs transferred to Ukraine remains unresolved. This includes not only 25mm ammunition but also TOW anti-tank missiles. Furthermore, an even larger fleet of armored vehicles requires servicing, including over 400 Stryker APCs and 900 M113s. Barrel replacements for M777 howitzers are also necessary.
And, of course, Europe would also have to compensate for the halt in the supply of a massive quantity of artillery ammunition—an average of 1 million 155mm shells per year. This must be done with the understanding that Europe simply does not have cluster munitions.
If Donald Trump’s administration does not halt the deliveries that were allocated and contracted under Joe Biden, Ukraine will have a certain "buffer" of supplies. This includes the PDA ammunition packages approved at the end of the year, as well as the USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) program, which orders weapons directly from manufacturers. A significant portion of the funds under this program has already been allocated for ammunition production and delivery, which is expected to continue over the next year, if not longer.
However, if we take a formal approach to assessing what Europe can and cannot produce based on weapon and military equipment types, almost every category can be marked with a "plus"—except for short-range ballistic missiles. France independently manufactures intercontinental and even nuclear weapons, along with long-range cruise missiles like the MdCN. But the real issue is not just capability; it is about production scale and a detailed analysis of each specific case.
After all, for example, European countries seemingly provide themselves with armored vehicles almost entirely. However, not long ago, Poland and Romania purchased Abrams tanks. Meanwhile, vehicles based on the ASCOD platform—Spanish, Austrian, and British IFVs—are produced in Europe but by General Dynamics European Land Systems, a subsidiary of an American company.
Regarding aviation, Europe has its own Eurofighter, Rafale, and Gripen. However, the Swedish aircraft relies on critical American components. A significant portion of the Eurofighter's combat capability depends on American AIM-120 missiles because the integration of the long-range Meteor missile has been significantly delayed. At the same time, every European country that could afford it purchased the F-35, except for France, which remains perhaps the best example of European autonomy in weapons development. However, there are many more examples of European armies' heavy dependence on American weaponry.
Thus, if Washington presents an ultimatum—either purchase weapons for Ukraine or not at all—the EU will have very little room to maneuver. On the other hand, such a scenario would inevitably push European countries toward shifting away from choosing American weapons and possibly reducing their reliance on U.S. components in their own military systems.
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