France's nuclear forces should become a deterrent in defense of Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron suggested in his address to the nation. But political intricacies aside, there is the main practical question that needs to be answered: is the French nuclear umbrella capable of protecting the entire continent?
For reference, French nuclear forces are more modest compared to what the country had back during the Cold War. According to open data sources, the French atomic arsenal counts a combined 240 TN75 and newer TNO warheads — the first has a capacity of 110 kt and the latter is slightly less destructive with 100 kt — plus another 54 TNA warheads with a capacity of 100–300 kt.
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The TN75 and TNO types are fed into M51 ballistic missiles on four Le Triomphant-class nuclear submarines, each can carry up to 16 missiles. A missile contains six warheads, optionally up to ten. To summarize, 240 charges are not enough for every Le Triomphant-class submarine to have all missile silos loaded.
As for the fifty TNAs, they are installed inside ASMP-A supersonic missiles with a range of 500–600 km which makes them tactical nuclear weapons. Only a handful of aircraft can carry these missiles: a few sources say it's 20 specialized Rafale B fighter jets, while others claim the weapon is integrated with 40 Rafales in the Air Force and 10 special Rafale MF3 carrier-based aircraft in the Navy.
Historically, France used to also have S3 silo-launched medium-range ballistic missiles. However, in 1996, Paris retired the weapon and dismantled the launch infrastructure. Around the same time a decision was made to curtail the production of Hadès short-range (500 km) missile systems with 80-kt nuclear charges, which were by that time developed and had just entered service.
Now France might be regretting the systematic cuts of its nuclear component. Moreover, in November 2024, French military officials were discussing the need for a medium-range ground-based ballistic missile with a range of 1,000 km. The plan on the table was supposed to complement the ongoing Land Cruise Missile development under the ELSA project.
In conclusion, currently the entire French nuclear deterrent force is limited, and its maintenance takes a massive financial toll: according to the French Armed forces Ministry spending reports, servicing nuclear weapons consumed €6.6 billion in 2024, or approximately 14% of the country's entire defense budget.
Nonetheless, even the very presence of nuclear weapons in any quantity can already be considered a deterrent, and that is what Paris is counting on.
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