On March 20, 2024, russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced the formation of the Dnipro River Flotilla and a boat brigade. This new formation will likely be responsible for securing the Dnipro waterways and islands that separate russian and Ukrainian controlled Kherson. It is a realistic possibility the Dnipro Flotilla will be subordinate to the Dnipro Group of Forces, which combined the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro Group of Forces in February 2024, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
Russia likely wants to prevent and deny Ukrainian cross river operations, such as the operation to establish and maintain the Krynky bridgehead. Russian and Ukrainian forces have both lost large numbers of personnel and equipment in exchanges on Krynky. On March 17, 2024, Ukrainian forces in Krynky reported repelling the 810th Guards russian Naval Infantry Brigade in the area.
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It is likely this formation will decouple river patrolling functions from the Black Sea Fleet, whilst the Black Sea Fleet is operating further afield in the eastern Black Sea. The Dnipro Flotilla will likely be vulnerable to Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles which have been effective in destroying russian vessels operating in the Black Sea.
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