November 27th, the opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began an offensive operation on Aleppo, the second-largest city in Syria. Over these past few days, the rebels against Bashar Assad's regime have made significant territorial gains and forced pro-Assad forces in this country into disarray, reportedly even leading to a shuffle in senior russian military leadership amid the setbacks in Syria.
This first groundbreaking sequence of events over the past 4 years of the fighting in Syria became quite apparently unexpected to the pro-government and russian forces, which helped the opposition fighters to seize most of Aleppo, according to the latest news, after taking control of the city's airport and the Kuweires Air Base further to the east. There are also reports of back-and-forth clashes in and around the city of Hama to the south.
Read more: russia Replaces Military Leadership Amid Setbacks in Syria
Against this background, one question that arises is how the Assad regime troops and their russian supporters didn't see such a major offensive coming. Although we must note the increased activity of russian An-30 reconnaissance aircraft recorded in October 2024, right around Aleppo.
It also makes sense to assess the forces available to the Syrian government as well as the russian personnel deployed in the country. To address this issue, we will rely on the data from The Military Balance 2024 guidebook issued by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Despite the pro-Assad military potential is only listed down in general outlines, the study specifies that the russian contingent counts 4,000 troops in total, they are divided into one infantry brigade, three motor rifle battalions and one engineer regiment. All combined possess about 10 T-72B3 tanks and 20 BTR-82A armored personnel carriers, 12 Msta-B towed howitzers and four Smerch mobile multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). The aviation component consists of
- 10 Su-24M tactical bombers,
- six Su-34 attack aircraft
- six Su-35S fighter jets,
- one A-50 and one Il-20 airborne reconnaissance aircraft,
- 12 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters and four Mi-8 transport helicopters.
Wonders of Kuweires Air Base: Syrian rebels appear to have captured the 3rd L-39 light attack aircraft, an UAV & radar/EW systems.More to come. pic.twitter.com/Clsp3SLHmJ— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 1, 2024
As for Bashar Assad's ground forces, only their number and structure are known in detail. The types of equipment they use are outlined but the numbers remain unclear.
Specifically, the regime's army manpower counts 130,000, it's organized into five corps, including two mechanized divisions of the Republican Guard, 10 mechanized divisions, seven mechanized and two infantry brigades. It is noted that only the 4th mechanized division of the Republican Guard and the 5th Assault Corps are fully combat-capable, other formations are in the process of being reconstructed and re-equipped with the help of russia.
At the same time, the equipment that army units wield is fascinating in what some would call diversity while others describe as chaos: the tank fleet comprises T-55, T-62, T-72 and T-90 types of various modifications; armored personnel carriers are BTR-50, BTR-152, BTR-70 and BTR-80 models, self-propelled and towed artillery are 2S1 Gvozdika, 2S3 Akatsiya and 2S9 Nona-S, towed howitzers include D-30 and M-30, M-46 guns (130mm), D-20 and M-20 types (152mm), and even gigantic S-23 guns (180mm).
Interestingly the same Military Balance directory provides also data on the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, which launched an offensive on Aleppo a few days ago. The movement is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. government.
It is believed that this group has 10,000 fighters armed with Malyutka, Metis, Konkurs, and Kornet ATGMs — as the names suggest, of russian origin — as well as Type 63 towed mini-MLRS and 120mm mortars. Air defense is provided by Strela MANPAD missiles, and anti-aircraft guns of ZPU-1, ZU-23-2, and S-60 types.
The amount of hardware which Syrian rebels captured in the last three days, is mind-boggling. Uragan MLRS, Pantsir air defense and even an entire L-39 light fighter. And there are dozens of more sites like this. pic.twitter.com/V2vVfdnCY1— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 1, 2024
In essence, those are light infantry forces that managed to make a rapid breakthrough, but whether this group will be capable of pulling off long-running operations against russia and its satellite Syria is an open question. Intensification of hostilities on Syrian territory could also become a catalyst for development of other conflicts, including the full-blown war between the russian federation and Ukraine.
Read more: OSINTer Counted Hundreds of Mothballed AFVs, Artillery Systems Europe Could Give Ukraine But There's an Issue
