Looming Battle of Donbas. Major Axis of Russian Advance

The enemy is preparing for an offensive operation in the Donbas. Ukraine’s Armed Forces (UAF) General Staff assesses that the enemy is currently focused on preparing for an offensive operation in the eastern theater of battle. aimed to destroy UAF defenders in the area and to win control over the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The adversary is currently in the final stages of completing putting together an assault force at the Eastern front; it is searching perceived vulnerabilities in our defenses and bolstering its command-and-control and logistics.

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Below is an up-to-date situation map of the Donetsk-Kherson theater, compiled by @JustasVitkauskas, @jominiw.

The maps show positions of the Russian forces, identifying them by the type of military formation they belong to: tank army (TA), combined arms army (CAA), army corps (AC), tank/motor rifle/ air assault/amphibious assault divisions (TD/MRD/AAD/AmAD) and their constituent regiments (TR/MRR/AAR/AmAR), independent motor rifle brigades (IMRBr), tank/motor rifle/air assault battalion tactical groups (TBTG/MRBTG/ASBTG). The maps also give the assessed numbers of Russian troops and major weapon and equipment systems (combat tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, mortars, howitzers, multiple rocket launchers etc) Russia has deployed towards the theater.

Note here that the numbers of Russian personnel and military gear featured in these maps are standard for the current organizational charts adopted by Russia’s Armed Forces and actually can be lower than assessed here.

Also, the maps show all the Russian weapon and equipment systems irrespective of their operational status: a significant part of the systems have been destroyed and later restored or taken out of stockpiles and storages, meaning they are not fully combat effective.

The adversary’s morale was not taken into account either; intercepted phone conversations of Russian soldiers with their families and friends reveal they are scared to fight in Ukraine.

We have decided to make relevant calculations in order to have an overall situation awareness on the eve of the "Battle of the Donbas", which is likely to be carried on several separate axis but under a single operational plan.

Our assessments are given below:

Kharkiv axe: 6th CAA Headquarters:

26^th TR within the 47^th TD; 437th Tank and Motorized Rifle Training Regiment (TMRTR), and 3 BTGs formed out of the 25th, 138^th, and 200^th IMRBr’s.

In total, upwards of 4.100 service members, 145 tanks, up to 70 infantry fighting vehicles (IFV’s), upwards of 120 MT-LB auxiliary armored tracked vehicles (AATV’s), up to 20 mortars, 12 guns, up to 80 self-propelled howitzers, up to 20 MLRS systems.

Izyum axe:

The Headquarters of the 1^st TA, 20^th CAA, and 35^th CAA

Ten regiments (5 TR’s, 3 MRR’s, and 2 AAR’s) of the 4^th TD; 2^nd, 3^rd, and 144^th MRD’s, and 98^th (or106th) AAD, in addition to 1 BTG of the 38^th IMRBr.

In total, upwards of 18.200 service members, upwards of 570 tanks, up to 520 IFV’s and up to 220 BMD airborne armored vehicles, upwards of 50 mortars, 12 self-propelled guns, up to 70 self-propelled howitzers and gun-howitzers, up to 20 MLRS systems.

Donetsk axe:

The headquarters of the 5^th CAA, 1^st and 2^nd Army Corps of the [self-proclaimed] DNR and LNR People’s Republics:

5^th CAA: 1 MRR and 2 battalions within the 127^th MRD, 4 (?) MR BTG's, 57^th and 70^th IMRBr; 2^nd AC: 2^nd MRBr, 3-5 MR BTG’s within the 4^th and 7^th MRBr’s, 6^th MRR, as well as 1 MRR and a trritorial defense regiment (TDR).

1^st AC; 1 MR BTG within the 11^th MRR, 4 MR battalions, 4 TDR’s.

A total of 14.800-16.200 service members, 140-160 tanks, 670-730 IFV’s, 120-130 mortars, 200-234 self-propelled howitzers and gun-howitzers, 70-80 MLRS systems.

Mariupol axe:

The headquarters of the 8^th CAA:

2 TBTG’s formed out of the 68^th TR; 2 MR BTG’s formed out of the 102^nd MRR of the 150^th MRD, 3 Marine BTG’s of the 810^th Independent Marine Brigade (IMBr) and 177th Independent Marine Regiment (IMR).

In total, upwards of 5.100 personnel, upwards of 80 tanks, 210 IFV’s, 18 mortars, 12 self-propelled howitzers, 30 self-propelled guns and gun-howizers, 10 MLRS systems.

South-East axe:

The headquarters of the 58^th CAA:

2 BTG’s formed out of the 163^rd TR of the 150^th MRD, 2 MR BTG’s formed out of the 71^st MRR of the 42^nd MRD, 2 MR BTG’s (503^rd MRR of the 19^th MRD. 2 MR BTG’s of the 36^th IMRBr).

A total of 7,000 personnel, upwards of 120 tanks, 260 IFV’s, 44 mortars, 72 self-propelled howitzers and gun-howitzers, up to 30 MLRS systems.

Kryvyy Rih axe:

The headquarters of the 58^th CAA:

3 MR BTG’s of the 126^th Independent Coastal Defense Brigade (ICD Br), 2-4 MR BTG’s of the 34^th and 205^th IMR Br’s, 1-2 AS BTG’s of the 11^th IAS Br.

A total of 5.800-7.200 personnel, 50-60 tanks, 30-60 IFV’s, 200-280 armored personnel carriers / MT-LB AATV’s, 26-34 mortars, 48-80 self-propelled howitzers and gun-howitzers, 24-30 MLRS systems.

Mykolayiv axe:

The headquarters of the 22^nd CAA:

2 MR BTG’s of the 33^rd and 255^th MRR’s of the 20^th MRD, 1 AABTG of the 56^th AAR of the 7^th AAD.

A total of 2.700 personnel, 30 tanks, up to 70 IFV’s, 30 BMD’s, 12 mortars, 6 self-propelled guns, 12 self-propelled howitzers, 8 MLRS systems.

An analysis of the numbers of personnel and weapon and military equipment systems the enemy accumulated in these areas reveals that, of the above listed axes of Russian advance, the Izyum axe is the one that carries the highest risk of defeat for Ukrainian forces.

This is where the Russians have accumulated their major tank power - the highest amount of the RF Armed Forces’ strike capabilities (10 regiments, including 5 TR’s, 3 MRR’s, and 2 AAR’s), in addition to personnel and strike weapons, including tanks and IFV’s / BMD’s (18.200 personnel, upwards of 570 tanks, up to 520 IFV’s, and up to 220 BMD’s). In addition, the Russian battle group on the Izyum axe is highly likely to have been tasked to launch a southward strike, encircle Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, and close the encirclement ring by joining its South-West grouping of forces.

The Donetsk axe is second most challenging.

This is where the adversary has accumulated its second largest battle force, comprised of Russian and LNR/DNR forces. (1 MRR, up to 4 MR BTG’s, 2 Russian Ground Forces’ battalions and 1 MR Br, 1 MRR, 4-6 MR BTG’s, 4 MR battalions of LNR / DNR Ground Forces). It ranks second in terms of the numbers of personnel, tanks, and IFV’s involved, and even first in terms of the number of artillery (14.800-16.200 personnel, 140-160 tanks, 670-730 IFV’s, 120-130 mortars, 200-234 self-propelled guns and gun-howitzers, 70-80 MLRS systems).

The adversary’s battle group in Donbas, comprised of units of the Russian and LNR/DNRground forces, is tasked to keep Ukrainian forces pinned down in Donbas and to prevent them to withdraw in an organized manner from encirclement should this prove successful.

The South-East axe is third most challenging.

There the Russians have 2 TBTG’s, 6 MR BTG’s, 7,000 soldiers, more than 120 tanks, 260 IFV’s, 44 mortars, 72 self-propelled howitzers and gun-howitzers, and up to 30 MLRS systems). They are going to bolster it further by adding 2 TBTG’s and 2 MR BTG’s from the 150^th MRD, if the two can be re-grouped and restored after the fighting in Mariupol. Russia’s South-East battle group should strike north and encircle the Ukrainian Donetsk group by joining friendly forces in and around Izyum.

Russia’s battle groups on other axis are much weaker in terms of the amount of offensive capabilities and will have to carry out ancillary and distracting tasks. The adversary will seek to divert UAF’s attention with threatened attacks, for example on Volyn from Belarus, an amphibious landing in Odessa, or an attack by two BTG’s from Transnistria. The tasks facing the Ukrainian forces are very difficult, but not impossible. - to thwart the adversary’s plans and inflict on it a decisive defeat.

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