The Ministry of Defense of Belarus officially announced that a joint flight and tactical exercise is planned to be conducted together with russia’s armed forces. The terms of the training, as well as the number of forces and the location are not specified.
This can be an important marker of the future plans of the Kremlin in terms of a possible resumption of hostilities from the territory of Belarus. On December 15, during the briefing of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the aviation component was named as one of the markers of preparation for the invasion from the territory of Belarus. At that time it was absent, and last February there were the A-50U aircraft, 32 close ground support aircraft, 15 fighters and 77 helicopters.
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Thus, the deployment of an aviation group requires significant preparation of the ground infrastructure, which will be unnoticed anyway.
Also, the message by the Ministry of Defense of Belarus says about the progress deploying joint regional grouping of troops. In addition, a significant number of russia’s BTR-82A and BTR-80K was demonstrated as well. Considering the fact that russians experience the lack of armored vehicles, this also looks quite unusual.
At the same time, the Belarusian direction is convenient for the Kremlin to conduct deceptive demonstration activities aiming to distract the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In particular, according to the assessment of the Ministry of Defense of Germany, there are two scenarios, according to the first – the russian federation will try to make a maximum similar demonstration of the strike threat, which will force additional forces to be transferred to the border with Belarus, by weakening other areas of the front. According to the second – Moscow will try to carry out a large-scale offensive, although this should require a general mobilization there and a much longer period for preparation.
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